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MLB Best Bets Today (Be Aggressive & Fade Jacob deGrom At Home)

By Donnavan Smoot

Aug 13, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) at
Aug 13, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) at / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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Last night was a case of extremes. When I was right (José Ureña UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts), I was really right. However when I was wrong (fading Aníbal Sánchez and Andrew Heaney), I was truly incorrect. 

Hopefully, we can be on the good end of that spectrum today and recover from the 1-2 night. 

Let’s jump into the picks.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Jacob deGrom UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-118) – FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Luis Garcia OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook
  • Chris Archer OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Jacob deGrom UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-118) - New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies

Most people celebrate deGrom day by backing him. I’m going to fade him as asking for 10 strikeouts from anyone never fails to feel like a stretch. 

The Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road, but they don’t strike out a lot. Colorado has the second-fewest strikeouts when playing away from home. 

deGrom is 2-2 against this line this season, and I feel much more confident in him having a dominant day without the strikeouts necessarily following.

Luis Garcia OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115) – Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

Garcia is at home, but I just don’t have a lot of faith in him to show up big today. He’s allowed at least three runs in his last three starts.

The Astros have also allowed him to stay on the mound, keeping him out there for at least 5 innings in his last 11 starts.

The Twins aren’t on top of their game, but a day against Garcia is just what they need.

Chris Archer OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115) – Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

I backed the Astros to win on the run line earlier today and that was for a reason. I expect their bats to be rolling at home – even against a fairly solid Archer. He’s allowed at least three runs in just two of his last five starts, but with the way the Twins are playing, I can’t trust anyone to be on top of their games. 

Archer’s ERA is higher when he’s on the road as well. Furthermore, he’s given up five more home runs in opposing parks despite pitching seven fewer innings. 

The Astros have dominated this series up to this point, and they’ll do it again. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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