Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Best NRFI Bet, Trust Rays and Phillies)

What better way to get a Friday started than some early MLB action to bet on?

There are several games that have a first pitch before 5 p.m. EST, starting with the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays at 1:05 p.m. EST and the Oakland A’s and Detroit Tigers at 1:10 p.m. EST.

While I don’t have a best bet for those games (I like the Yankees to win in Marcus Stroman’s Yankee Stadium debut), there are four games that I’m eyeing for today’s action. Let’s break down these bets.

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MLB Best Bets Today for April 5

• Seattle Mariners-Milwaukee Brewers No Runs First Inning
• Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline vs. Colorado Rockies
• San Diego Padres Moneyline vs. San Francisco Giants
• Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline vs. Washington Nationals

Seattle Mariners-Milwaukee Brewers No Runs First Inning

Both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored this season, and now we get a terrific pitching matchup between Logan Gilbert and Freddy Peralta.

Gilbert tossed seven innings of one-run ball in his season debut, and Peralta was just as effective, giving up just one run across six frames. 

The No Runs First Innings (NRFI) has hit in 71 percent of the Mariners’ games this season and 60 percent of the Brewers’ games. Given this pitching matchup, I’ll gladly back the NRFI. 

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline vs. Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are just 1-6 so far this season, and now they send Austin Gomber to the mound at home, and his splits at Coors Field are downright awful. 

In 15 home starts last season, Gomber posted a 7.05 ERA, allowing 87 hits and 16 home runs in 75.1 innings of work. He enters this game after ​​allowing four runs and two homers in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in his season debut.

That’s not going to get it done against Tampa Bay and starter Zack Littell, who spun six scoreless in his season debut. I’ll take the Rays to pick up a win against one of MLB’s worst teams. 

San Diego Padres Moneyline vs. San Francisco Giants

This is a “fade the bullpen” play on the 2-5 San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco ranks 29th in Major League Baseball in bullpen ERA (7.46), and I’m worried about converted reliever Jordan Hicks, who may not pitch deep into this game after going five scoreless frames in his season debut. 

Meanwhile, Dylan Cease is due for some positive regression for the Padres after allowing just two hits, but three runs (two earned) in his season debut. 

Until this San Fran bullpen team turns things around, it is extremely untrustworthy in full-game bets. 

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline vs. Washington Nationals

The thinking with this bet is simple: 

I simply can't bet on Patrick Corbin, who has posted an ERA over 5.00 in three straight seasons and was shelled for seven hits, four runs and two homers in a loss to the Cincinnati Reds to open his 2024 season.

Philadelphia did not get a good outing from Aaron Nola against the Atlanta Braves, but the Nationals' offense is a step down in class. While the Braves rank No. 1 in batting average, OPS and slugging percentage, the Nationals are 12th, 11th and 11th in those categories. 

Trust Philly's No. 2 starter to bounce back here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.