MLB Best Bets Today (Can Rangers Take 3-1 Series Lead vs. Astros?)

How to bet on Thursday's MLB action in the NLCS and ALCS.

Oct 16, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3)
Oct 16, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Both the ALCS and NLCS are on the docket for Thursday with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros battling in Game 4, and the PhiladelphiaPhillies attempting to take a 3-0 series lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

With the games increasing in importance with every passing day, we are starting to get a better feel for how to bet both the NLCS and ALCS.

Can the Rangers take a 3-1 series lead? Can Bryce Harper continue to cause problems for the Diamondbacks pitching staff?

We got you covered with our best bets for Thursday's postseason action.

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Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

As broken down by yours truly on Nolan Writin':

It's tough to trust either pitcher heading into Game 4, but I'll make the case for Andrew Heaney, who has limited damage via the long ball this season in the hitter-friendly ballpark of Globe Life Field. Heaney has upped his ground-ball rate across the second half of the season and only allowed four home runs between August and September.

The same can't be said for Jose Urquidy, who posted a 5.29 ERA in the regular season in only 63 innings as he battled injuries. He has allowed hard contact all season -- more than nine hits per nine innings -- and nearly two home runs per nine.

In the regular season, Texas was third in slugging percentage (.452), and that number jumped to second when you filter out only home games (.495). The team rakes at home and I expect no less on Thursday while Heaney should be able to navigate the Astros lineup.

I'll take Texas at a cheap price to take a 3-1 series lead.

PICK: Rangers -120

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Christian Walker only had one hit in seven at bats in Philadelphia, but I'll back him to jumpstart the D-Backs offense back at home on Thursday.

Walker has strong splits against Ranger Suarez in 19 plate appearances, posting a .333 batting average with a .600 slugging percentage. This follows with the first baseman's career, as he's hitting about the same in terms of batting average but crushing the ball against southpaws, raising his .472 slugging percentage to .575.

Providing the power in the middle of the lineup, I like Walker to have a big game at the plate with the Diamondbacks offense trying to get the team back in the series in a favorable split.

PICK: Walker OVER 1.5 total bases (+120)

For more on this game check out our full game betting preview here!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!