Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Diamondbacks Primed for Upset, No Run First Inning to Bet)

During the MLB season, Sunday afternoon baseball is a staple, and it gives us something to wager on throughout the day before culminating in a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Baseball. 

There are plenty of games to choose from on May 12, but I’ve narrowed down my best bets to three games, focusing on some key starting pitching matchups that I think can give us an advantage. 

Two of today’s picks are at plus money, so cashing in would be a great way to jump start the next week. Here are the picks and players to target:

MLB Best Bets Today for May 12

• Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline vs. Baltimore Orioles (+105)
• Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
• Boston Red Sox-Washington National No Run First Inning (-140)

Oddsvia DraftKings Sportsbook.

Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline vs. Baltimore Orioles (+105)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gotten off to a slow start in the 2024 season after making the World Series in 2023, and they have a tough matchup against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

Still, I think the D-Backs are worth a shot as road underdogs.

Arizona is sending ace Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.84 ERA) to the mound in this one, and he’s coming off a dazzling performance against the Cincinnati Reds where he allowed just one hit across six innings of work. 

Gallen is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and even the struggling D-Backs are 4-3 straight up in his seven starts. I think he has a major advantage over Baltimore starter Dean Kremer (3-2, 3.57 ERA), who has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.72 on the season.

Kremer is due for some regression, while Gallen took some extra rest after two rough outings in April to turn in his best game of the season on May 7. 

Even with the O’s strong offense, I lean with Gallen leading his team to a win on Sunday. 

Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Jack Flaherty is finally healthy, and the now-Detroit Tigers starter is finding his All-Star form in a big way in 2024. 

Across seven starts, Flaherty has punched out at least six batters in six of those games, posting a 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings mark this season. 

His advanced numbers back this up, as the righty ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff percentage, 94th percentile in strikeout percentage and 78th percentile in chase rate. 

While this is a tough matchup against a Houston Astros team that averages just 6.54 strikeouts per game, I’m going to trust Flaherty’s season-long success to hit this prop again – at plus money – on Sunday.

Boston Red Sox-Washington National No Run First Inning (-140)

Looking for a first inning sweat today?

If one trend holds, this should be the least sweaty bet of Sunday’s picks.

On the season, Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello and Washington Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore are a combined 12-0 when it comes to no run first inning props. 

It makes sense, as both starters have solid ERAs so far this season (Bello at 3.04, Gore at 3.44). Plus, Washington has scored the fewest runs in the first inning in Major League Baseball this season with just nine.

I’ll lay the juice on this prop given these pitchers and their effectiveness early in games.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.