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MLB Best Bets Today (Don't Be Scared To Fade Lucas Giolito Against Tigers)

By Donnavan Smoot

Aug 7, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) pitches
Aug 7, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) pitches / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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Our guy Iain MacMillan took over the best bets column for us yesterday and did a great job. However, it feels good to be back and I'm ready to hit a weekend sweep.

I have two game picks that I feel extremely confident about and I'm fading a notable pitcher against one of the worst offenses in the league -- Yup. You read that right.

Let’s get right to it. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Lucas Giolito UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110) – FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Diamondbacks -1.5 vs. Rockies (+100) – WynnBET Sportsbook
  • Twins ML vs. Angels (-107) – WynnBET Sportsbook

Lucas Giolito UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

As great as Giolito has been over his last five starts, I’m fading him in the strikeout market today. He’s only cleared this line in one of his last five starts.He does have a slight advantage because he’s playing the Tigers, but his performances tell me to bet otherwise. 

Also, he’s only gone 5 innings in his last three starts. Unless he stays out on the mound for a longer period of time, the UNDER is cashing tonight. 

Diamondbacks -1.5 vs. Rockies (+100)

The Rockies’ offense is spectacular at home. Colorado is first in OPS, 10th in home runs and first in hits when playing at Coors Field. I like betting them at home, especially as home underdogs. Yet I just can’t do it today with Jose Urena on the mond. 

Colorado has lost the last four games he’s started in, and he gave up 17 runs in that span. He has 10 strikeouts in his last four games, making him “unbet-able” for me today. 

I’ll easily trust Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks. Gallen is coming off a 7.0-inning, scoreless outing against the Pirates. He has momentum coming into this match, putting the Diamondbacks in a great position.

With the better pitcher on the mound, take the Diamondbacks to win comfortably. 

Twins ML vs. Angels (-107)

These are normally two of the most fadable options in the MLB: Dylan Bundy and the Angels. Out of the two though, I enjoy fading the Angels more. Los Angeles is 5-5 in its last 10 games, but three of those wins came against Oakland. Now that the Angels are back to playing real teams, I expect them to continue to fall.

Also, Bundy has been much improved over the last six weeks. While he’s still had a few blunders, the Twins have won four of his last six starts. The Angels are one of the top strikeout teams in the league, so I expect Bundy to look solid enough to get the win.

On the year, the Angels are 3-11 SU as home underdogs. This is not a spot they thrive in, so I’m trusting the numbers and fading them. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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