Betsided

MLB Best Bets Today (Don’t Buy the Reid Detmers Hype in Anaheim)

By Donnavan Smoot

Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees - Game Two
Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees - Game Two / Sarah Stier/GettyImages
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A new week breeds a new opportunity to hit on all of my props this week. Today, I’m going to three pitchers, but the hater in me is now coming out. I’m fading two of them – including one coming off a season-best performance. 

Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from both consensus lines and WynnBET Sportsbook. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Matt Swarmer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-134)
  • Jack Flaherty UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
  • Reid Detmers UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Matt Swarmer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-134)

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Matt Swarmer hit his over on his strikeout prop in his last matchup of the season.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Matt Swarmer hit his over on his strikeout prop in his last matchup of the season. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

I think Matt Swarmer is going to be my new guy to bet on. He came through for me last time, and I’ll back him again with a great matchup like today.

The Pirates have the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors. If Swarmer can stay on the mound long enough, he can clear this easily. He’s cleared this line in every start this season. The Pirates are one of the best matchups for any pitcher, and Swarmer is no different. 

Jack Flaherty UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty leaves a start against the Chicago Cubs.
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty leaves a start against the Chicago Cubs. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Flaherty missed this line in his first start, but he only went three innings.

Coming off the injury, expect Flaherty to come under this line several times. He’s expected to be under a pitch count, which will limit him later in the game. Although the Brewers have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors, I don’t see Flaherty having a spectacular game this early into his return. 

Reid Detmers UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers faces the Kansas City Royals in Anaheim this evening.
Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers faces the Kansas City Royals in Anaheim this evening. / Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Detmers comes off one of his better starts this year, striking out six against the Dodgers. That was his season high in strikeouts, and I’m expecting him to come back down to Earth today.

The Royals are one of the hardest teams in the league to strike out. They have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate and average the fourth-lowest amount of strikeouts in the majors.

Detmers has come under this line in four of his last seven starts. Expect another low-strikeout performance from him today.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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