MLB Best Bets Today for Every Game (October 2)
It’s the final Sunday of the Major League Baseball regular season, so it’s now or never to get your bets in and watch a full day of MLB and NFL action!
There are still a few teams in the National League battling for the final wild card spots, but the rest of the postseason field is pretty much set.
How should we attack each game? Here’s a best bet from the BetSided team for every matchup on Sunday, Oct. 2:
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Tigers ML (-102)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-130)
Wheeler hasn't missed a beat since coming off the injured list, allowing one run over two starts spanning 10 innings. He will face a Nationals offense that lacks MLB quality hitters and is bottom 10 in batting average on the season.
The real edge comes with the Phillies ability to push ahead on the scoreboard. Philadelphia is fifth in batting average this season against lefty pitchers this season and will get the opportunity to face Patrick Corbin, who has allowed the most hits (200) and earned runs (100) in baseball this season.
The Phillies have big hitters in the lineup that should get to Corbin and Wheeler should have enough cushion to cruise to a victory as the Phillies hold serve in a crucial matchup. – Reed Wallach
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-155)
Baltimore hasn’t been super successful getting wins over the Yankees this season. However, the Orioles do have a winning record on the run line, which is exactly where I’m going with this bet.
The Yankees are starting Luis Severino in this game, and that is where my contention comes from. Severino is still trying to recover from his injury and get back into a rhythm. He’s had two decent starts, but they’ve come in shorter starts.
All season long, the Orioles have made people money by covering as underdogs on the run line. As the year winds down, let’s go back to what has worked for us. – Donnavan Smoot
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105)
There’s no doubt that Wacha has been Boston’s best pitcher, despite his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP sitting at 3.90 on the season.
Boston is 16-6 in his starts this season, and since the start of August, the Red Sox are 7-2 in his nine outings.
Gausman has pitched well for the Jays this season, but he has a 4.02 ERA this month, allowing five runs to the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers in separate starts.
That being said, the Jays have dominated the Red Sox in this series, outscoring them 19-0 through the first two games. Even if Wacha pitches well, I don’t trust Boston’s bullpen, which is in the bottom 10 in the league in ERA. – Peter Dewey
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+105)
I have very little confidence in Castillo in this game, as he’s posted a 7.90 ERA and allowed 15 hits in 13.2 innings (four outings) since joining Kansas City.
To make matters worse, Castillo failed to get an out in his last appearance giving up three earned runs in a matchup with the Detroit Tigers.
That’s not going to work against Bieber, who has a 2.05 ERA since July 29 and is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
The Guardians don’t need wins to secure a playoff spot, but I still won’t doubt them in this spot, as they are trying to finish the season strong to carry some momentum into the playoffs. – Peter Dewey
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7 (-106)
The Marlins are playing out this season in hopes of spoiling some teams playoff chances, and López tried his hardest on Tuesday, holding down the Mets lineup to three runs in six innings. He now gets to face a middling Brewers offense that is below the big league average in both on-base percentage and wRC+ over the last month.
Meanwhile, the Marlins offense continues to keep down what is a solid pitching staff. The team is hitting .235 over the last month, 25th best in baseball, and are facing Houser, who is rounding into form. While he has struggled with control this season, he is coming off the best stretch of the season, posting a 3.68 ERA over his last five starts.
I don't trust either offense and think both pitchers are in line for strong outings, so I'll take a stab at the under in this series finale. – Reed Wallach
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Rays ML (+146)
The key today becomes what kind of start the veteran Kluber can give Tampa. While he was fantastic two starts ago vs. these Astros, he's also coming off a tough outing vs. his former team, the Cleveland Guardians; going just four innings allowing eight hits and three runs. However, it's worth nothing that despite a short start, Kluber's in-game Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), was actually terrific at 1.37. In fact, over his last five starts, Kluber's ERA is 5.18, but his FIP is only 2.62; suggesting he's been insanely unlucky over the last month.
For Garcia, it's actually been the opposite. Over his last six games, he's 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA, but his FIP is up near 4.27. That's not to say he's been bad, per se, but perhaps the number for this matchup is a bit inflated when it should actually be closer.
The Rays need this game if they hope to make any sort of run for a better wild card spot with the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays in front. I think Kluber's due for some positive regression and can see it coming today vs. a team nowhere near as desperate. – Ben Heisler
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 7 (-104)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Cubs ML (-190)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+110)
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Angels ML (-124)
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 7 (+102)
It's an awfully low total for a gorgeous day in San Diego with Lynn's ongoing struggles for Chicago. He's given up a lot of hard contact of late, and a ton of hits. Factor in the Padres' ranking fourth in the National League in on-base percentage and that doesn't set up well for the South Siders on the road.
However, Chicago continues to hit the ball very well vs. left-handed pitching, even in the midst of an incredibly disappointing season. The White Sox own the second-best batting average (.275) vs. lefties, and rank second in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), third in weighted-on-base-average (wOBA), and third in on-base-plus-slugging (OPS).
Snell's been dominant with strikeouts this year, but Chicago also doesn't swing-and-miss too often vs. southpaws, ranked sixth in all of baseball at 19.9%.
Between Lynn's inconsistencies, and Chicago's success vs. lefties, I think we see a few more runs than the oddsmakers expect. – Ben Heisler
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 8 (-108)
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7 (-108)
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Mets ML (+110)
There's not much separating these two teams, and I'll side with the Mets as small underdogs, especially with New York's success against Charlie Morton this season.
In three starts against the Mets, Morton has an ERA of 4.67 while allowing three home runs. The Mets are disciplined at the plate, top three in walk rate and should have the ability to push Morton, who has posted the highest walk rate in four seasons.
On the other side, Bassitt has had two stellar outings against the Braves, allowing four earned runs across 13 innings and posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly five.
Again, these two teams are equals and I think there's consistently value taking the underdog, so give me the Mets on Sunday night. – Reed Wallach