MLB Best Bets Today for Every Game (October 4)

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Not one, not two but three doubleheaders are on tap in Major League Baseball on Tuesday, Oct. 4, meaning we have 18 MLB games on the second to last day of the regular season. 

The BetSided team has a pick for every single game on Tuesday’s slate, as we get to wager on some of these non-playoff teams for the final time this season. 

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Game 1 Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Nationals +1.5 (+122)

The problem is, Cory Abott is not a good starting pitcher with a 5.11 ERA and a 6.30 fielding independent pitching. He is 0-4 and the Nationals are 3-12 in games that he has pitched. Eight of those games were starts, the other seven out of the bullpen. 

Carlos Carrasco is a good pitcher even though his ERA has started to creep up near the fours. The last time he faced Washington he didn’t make it out of the third inning before allowing five runs and in his last two starts he has allowed seven earned runs over seven innings. 

Carrasco hasn’t been as reliable and the Mets have to be down after this weekend. – Josh Yourish

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Game 1 Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Yankees ML (-110)

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners Game 1 Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Mariners ML (-166)

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Guardians Team Total OVER 4 Runs (-110)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Cardinals ML (-118)

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Cubs ML (-104)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-184)

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Mets -1.5 (-120)

Walker has not been the same pitcher in August and September that he was for the first few months of the season. For those two months his ERA is 5.20 compared to the 2.79 he carried through July. His slide in production is a big reason that the Mets slid to second in the division and I actually think it might cost them again. The Mets lead the season series 11-5, but Washington has won the last two by a margin of 7-1. 

It definitely matters what happens in Game 1 of the doubleheader because if New York blows it then they will probably just pack it in and lose both, but if they are still alive then I’d expect them to win at night.

All that is to say I’m staying away, but I’ll lean the Mets on the run line because of their 11 wins this year against Washington this year, every single one was won by more than two runs. – Josh Yourish

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Red Sox ML (+100)

Boston tagged Spring for five runs back in August, but overall he’s been terrific this season, especially over the last two months. 

In his last 11 starts, Springs has a 2.14 ERA, 2.36 Fielding Independent Pitching and has struck out 64 batters in 59.0 innings of work. The Rays are 8-3 in those 11 starts, and they are 17-7 in his starts this season. 

Eovaldi returned from the injured list to make a start against Baltimore on Sept. 29, pitching 4.2 innings of two-run ball (one earned) in a 5-3 Boston win. 

My concern here is with the Tampa Bay offense, which ranks 27th in baseball in OPS over the last 15 days. Boston, on the other hand, ranks 11th in that category and it’s also eighth in OPS against lefties in the 2022 season. 

Spring has been money for the Rays, but I am not sure he gets the run support he will need to win this game. – Peter Dewey

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-115)

Both of these pitchers turned in solid starts against these teams earlier in the month, as Eric Lauer allowed just two runs over 6.2 innings against Arizona and Zac Gallen tossed seven scoreless in his outing against the Brew Crew. 

Despite that, these pitchers are far from equal. 

Gallen has been terrific to close this season, posting a 1.27 ERA over his last 13 starts, leading the D-Backs to a 10-3 record in those games. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since July 8. 

Meanwhile, Lauer has a 4.56 Fielding Independent Pitching this season, showcasing that he’s been a little lucky to have an ERA under 4.00. He also has a 5.82 ERA this month, with his best start coming against a bad Miami Marlins offense. 

With Milwaukee’s season over after tomorrow, I think this is a let down spot, especially against a tough pitcher like Gallen. – Peter Dewey

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: OVER 7.5 (-104)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 7 (-124)

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Game 2 Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-106)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: A’s ML (+120)

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: OVER 7 (-120)

If there is one thing I’m not going to do, it’s bet an UNDER in a game Sean Manaea is pitching. 

Manaea has been awful over his last 15 outings (13 starts), posting a 6.72 ERA and allowing 88 hits in just 67 innings pitched. The Padres are 5-10 in those games. 

The Giants rank 12th in OPS against lefties this season, and now with the team’s starter up in the air, I think we could see a very offensive game on Tuesday. 

The Padres have gone OVER or landed exactly one seven runs in eight of Manaea’s last 10 outings. Back the OVER again tonight. – Peter Dewey

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-176)