MLB Best Bets Today for Every Game (September 27)

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5).
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5). / Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

We’re back with a full slate of games in MLB, and there are several teams looking to clinch a playoff spot with wins this week. 

The New York Yankees are aiming to clinch the AL East, while the Houston Astros have a chance to lock up the No. 1 seed in the American League. 

Let’s get into our best bets and prediction for each game on Tuesday, Sept. 27: 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Guardians ML (-148)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Reds ML (-102)

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-102)

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Nationals +1.5 (+100)

Kyle Muller has pitched twice this year, so for a bigger sample I’ll include last season when he threw 36.2 innings in the majors. Across that time he has a 5.28 ERA, but a promising 3.97 Fielding Independent Pitching. The issue so far this year has been the walks. Muller is issuing 8.2 free passes per nine innings. 

The Nationals essentially have one real threat at the plate and it's Joey Meneses, so getting him against a lefty like Muller provides value. Meneses has a 1.101 OPS against lefties this year and has been their most valuable offensive player since coming up from the minors.

I love the Braves offense and they won 8-0 yesterday, but I like the Nationals in this spot. They’ll likely keep one game close in this series and this is absolutely they’re best chance. – Josh Yourish

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Yankees ML (-112)

There is just no way that I can trust Jose Berrios to lead the Jays to a win, even though his record is actually pretty solid for a pitcher that has a 5.27 ERA. 

Berrios allowed six runs in just two innings of work in his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has a 6.02 ERA over nine starts since the beginning of August. Yes, the Jays are 6-3 in those games, but it’s mainly because they have the best offense in baseball over the last month. 

Things aren't going to come as easily against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, and Taillon has pitched well against the Jays this season. In five starts, he has a 2.67 ERA against Toronto, allowing just eight runs across 27.0 innings of work. 

Meanwhile, Berrios has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 17 innings against New York in 2022. Give me the Yankees in this one. – Peter Dewey

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Mets -1.5 (+104)

It's been an up and down season for Carlos Carrasco, but he is far better at home than on the road. The veteran pitches to a 3.21 ERA at Citi Field, down from 4.57 away from his home ballpark this season, and I fancy his chances of tearing through a Marlins lineup that is bottom five in nearly all hitting metrics this season.

Meanwhile, the Fish send out Pablo López, who has been a mess in the second half of the season, going from an ERA of 2.86 to 5.57 since the All-Star break. With the way the Mets lineup is hitting of late, third in wRC+ this month, they should have little issue keeping pace in the NL East. – Reed Wallach

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 9 (-118)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: NRFI (-142)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: OVER 8.5 (-106)

Despite their season-long stats, these pitchers enter this matchup with much different luck going for them. 

The Cards have lost three straight starts by Miles Mikolas, despite him posting just a 3.71 ERA in those outings, while the Brewers have been winners in four straight starts by Adrian Houser. 

The Brewers righty faced this Cardinals team in late May, and he gave up eight runs (five earned) in just four innings of work. Even though that was a while back, I have a hard time trusting Houser given his ERA and FIP being over four on the season. 

Over Mikolas’ last 10 starts, he has a 4.43 ERA, so I think the OVER here is the play, especially with how talented the Cardinals offense is. – Peter Dewey

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: White Sox ML (-120)

Both of these teams have to win to give themselves any chance at a miracle run for a wild card spot, but I lean towards Lance Lynn here, as the White Sox had won four straight starts by him prior to his last outing. 

Bailey Ober also hasn’t given the Twins much length lately, so you’re relying heavily on a bullpen that is in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA this season. – Peter Dewey

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110)

Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: A’s ML (+166)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Dodgers ML (-108)

Blake Snell has pitched much better in the second half of the season, but I really can’t back him in this spot considering how well the Dodgers are playing. 

Los Angeles already roughed up Snell earlier this month, and the team ranks fifth in OPS and second in runs scored over the last month. 

Tyler Anderson last pitched against the Padres on Aug. 7, pitching seven innings of two-hit ball. He’s been fantastic for L.A. this season, and the team is 21-7 in his outings in 2022.

Even on the road, the Dodgers are the team to back. – Peter Dewey

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-115)

I don’t really have interest in backing a side here, as the Mariners are struggling to win games, and the Rangers come into this series on a three-game losing streak. 

Instead, I think there is value on the total, as Texas comes into this game ranking 28th in OPS over the last month of action. 

The Mariners haven’t been great either, scoring one or fewer runs in five of their last nine games. Even though Tinico isn’t a starter, he should be able to slow things down early before giving way to a solid Texas pen that ranks 12th in MLB in ERA this season. 

As for Robbie Ray, he has made two solid starts against the Rangers this season, and he’s pitched much better over the last two months, compiling a 2.45 ERA in nine outings. 

Give me the UNDER in this matchup between struggling teams. – Peter Dewey

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Giants ML (-190)