MLB Best Bets Today for Every Game (September 29)
The wild card races in the American League and National League are heating up.
The Philadelphia Phillies need a win to keep their half game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for the final spot in the National League, while the Baltimore Orioles need to get hot to finish the season to have any chance at grabbing a spot in the AL.
Not every team is in action, but we have a pick for every game in MLB on Thursday, Sept. 29.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Tigers ML (-130)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: White Sox ML (-112)
With Lucas Giolito on the mound, you’d think the White Sox would be in perfect position to get a win today. He has a 6-2 record on the road with a 3.84 ERA. However, this White Sox team has been allergic to winning over the last week, making them completely untrustworthy.
As for the Twins, Louie Varland is making just his fourth start of the season. He hasn’t been great in his first few starts, giving up nine runs and four home runs in the first three outings of the year. His performances have surely been worse than Giolito’s, which again, makes him untrustworthy.
I think Giolito’s pitching finally works its magic over the White Sox and gets them to end this series on the right note. – Donnavan Smoot
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-146)
When healthy this season, Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the better pitchers for a Boston team that has really struggled on the mound this season.
The Red Sox are 9-9 in his starts, and Eovaldi did have a 2.95 ERA in his three starts prior to landing on the injured list.
Mike Baumann has two starts this season, pitching nine innings, allowing 11 hits and five earned runs.
While I don’t know if the O’s win this game, they are the best team in MLB on the run line this season. With Boston’s bullpen (25th in ERA) potentially facing a big workload if Eovaldi is on a pitch count, I don’t mind taking the O’s to cover here. – Peter Dewey
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Phillies ML (-196)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7 (+105)
If you want to back the Guardians in this spot, I wouldn’t blame you, as they’ve won 10 of Cal Quantrill’s last 11 outings.
Still, I believe in Jeffrey Springs as well, as the Rays are 17-6 in his 23 starts this season and have won five straight with Springs on the mound.
So, rather than fade one of these two starters, I’m going to look to the UNDER in this game, which happens to be at plus money.
Spring has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 23 starts this season, while Quantrill is on a streak of seven straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed.
The Rays rank just 18th in OPS over the last 15 days, and this looks like a game where the better pitching staff wins out. With these two starters on the mound, and two bullpens that rank in the top six in the league in ERA, the UNDER is the way to go. – Peter Dewey
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 7.5 (-110)
I’m a bit concerned for the Brewers. Eric Lauer is on the mound in this one and he hasn’t been the most trustworthy starter recently. He’s been pulled before the third inning in his last two starts and he’s lost two of his last three starts.
Braxton Garrett doesn’t inspire much confidence either, with a 2-4 road record and 4.40 ERA away from home. He has played well though, only allowing three runs over his last three starts.
The Brewers only need a win and they have thrived in this spot and they’ve been very good on the year in this scenario. Milwaukee is 38-23 SU as a home favorite.
Still, Lauer’s recent performance makes me want to lean towards the OVER rather than a side. – Donnavan Smoot
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Angels -1.5 (-118)
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 7 (-114)
Jon Gray has pitched well in his three starts since coming off the injured list, allowing just three earned runs in 13.0 innings pitched, but Texas has found a way to lose each of those games.
In those starts, the Texas bullpen has given up nine, three and five runs, essentially wasting solid starts by Gray. Despite that, I’m not ready to back the Mariners in this matchup.
Marco Gonzales has gotten away with pitching pretty poorly this season, as he has a 5.02 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), but his ERA is nearly a whole run lower. He’s allowed 27 homers in 30 starts, and he’s given up six homers in four starts this month while pitching to a 4.44 ERA.
I think Texas, which ranks 10th in OPS against lefties this season, will have no problem getting to Gonzales in this game. That, coupled with the Rangers’ questionable bullpen, should lead us OVER this low total. – Peter Dewey
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Giants -1.5 (-114)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-110)
These two teams play the rubber match in a game that will rely heavily on the bullpens to get things done. Both teams are starting an opener, and that actually could help us find some value on the total.
The first two games of this series have seen eight combined runs, with the total going UNDER 7.5 in each game.
The Dodgers have the No. 2 bullpen in MLB based on bullpen ERA, while the Padres are respectable, clocking in at No. 12. It's hard to handicap a matchup when it's likely that we won't know who will be pitching for eight of the innings for each squad, but given what we've seen from these bullpens in 2022, the UNDER should be in play. -- Peter Dewey