MLB Best Bets Today (Expect Pitching Duel In A-Town)

Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies / Dustin Bradford/GettyImages

We had a solid night in MLB last night. While I misjudged Reid Detmers' line, we hit on Matt Swarmer's prop and Jack Flaherty's line. Tonight, I have the same strategy. I'm going with two OVERs and one UNDER. With two of the props coming from the Braves-Giants game, I expect this to be an efficient and effective night.

Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from consensus lines and WynnBET Sportsbook. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Charlie Morton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)
  • Carlos Rodon OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-120)
  • Pablo Lopez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Charlie Morton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)

Charlie Morton
Pittsburgh Pirates v Atlanta Braves / Todd Kirkland/GettyImages

Morton has cleared this line easily in his last three games. He’s started off June on fire and will continue on that path tonight. The Giants have the fifth-worst strikeout rate over the last three games (two of which were against the Braves). San Francisco is being aggressive and failing right now. With the way Morton is pitching right now, I’ll back the hot hand. 

Carlos Rodon OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Carlos Rodon
San Francisco Giants v Pittsburgh Pirates / Joe Sargent/GettyImages

Even though the Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball, they do have a flaw. Atlanta has the worst strikeout rate at home. Shocking, I know. Rodon has cleared this line in his last two games and has racked up strikeouts all year long. I’ll give Rodon the same respect I gave Morton and back the hot hand. 

Pablo Lopez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Pablo Lopez
San Francisco Giants v Miami Marlins / Eric Espada/GettyImages

Lopez is consistently around this number, and it depends on whether he can get past the hook or not that determines if he clears the line. I think he comes under this prop because of the defensiveness of the Rockies. Colorado has the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors, making me lean towards the UNDER. Lopez missed this line the last time he pitched against the Rockies, so I’m hoping for a similar result. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.