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MLB Best Bets Today (Fade D-Backs & Rockies, Prediction for Dakota Hudson)

By Donnavan Smoot

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Dakota Hudson.
St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Dakota Hudson. / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
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We have a lot of early games to get to this Thursday, so let's jump right into today's slate.

We're looking at a favorable matchup for a pitcher, fading the Rockies and calling "fluke" on the Diamondbacks.

Let’s get right to it, with odds coming from consensus lines and WynnBET Sportsbook. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Dakota Hudson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-128)
  • Rockies Team Total UNDER 3.0 Runs (-130)
  • Cardinals -1.5 vs. Diamondbacks (+115) - available at WynnBET

Dakota Hudson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-128)

Hudson has gotten better with each start this season. His hits have gone down and the strikeouts have gone down. That’s a perfect way to come into this matchup with the Diamondbacks. Arizona strikes out at the fifth-highest rate in baseball.

If Hudson can continue to stay on the mound, like he did in his last start, then this is a no-brainer for me.

Rockies Team Total UNDER 3.0 Runs (-130)

The Rockies haven’t cleared three runs in their last three games and in four of the last five games. The Phillies have shut down any offense they have for this entire series. Today, the Rockies will face Zack Wheeler and I don’t have a lot of faith they will break him.

Colorado’s offense is based on the long ball and extra bases. Wheeler isn’t giving up many of either, so I’ll back him instead of the Rockies. 

Cardinals -1.5 vs. Diamondbacks (+115) - WynnBET

The Diamondbacks are in a good rhythm right now, but I think they get come back down to earth today. St. Louis snapped its losing streak yesterday, beating the New York Mets 10-5. Their offense finally showed up and I’ll back it against Humberto Castellanos.

Castellanos finally had a decent start in his last game, but prior to that, he hadn’t gone past 4.0 innings. He’s giving the Diamondbacks short innings, meaning he’s getting rocked early. 

If the Cardinals and their above average offense can start the game off with a few hits, they will put a lot of pressure on Castellanos to be perfect. That won’t happen and runs will soon follow. 

Arizona should be proud of themselves for winning the series against the Dodgers, but they aren’t a good baseball team. St. Louis will expose that tonight. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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