MLB Best Bets Today (Fade Framber Valdez At Home, Back Dylan Cease On Road)
Once again, we had a 1-2 day. Taijuan Walker OVER 4.5 strikeouts was the only bet to cash last night. That’s OK. We’re on our way back to the top today. I feel it.
Today, I’m looking to bounce back in a big way. We have three pitching props and all of them are at plus money.
Let’s get to it.
MLB Best Bets Today
- Framber Valdez UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) – DraftKings Sportsbook
- Dylan Cease OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+108) – FanDuel Sportsbook
- Drew Smyly UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110) - FanDuel Sportsbook
Framber Valdez UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Valdez goes back and forth with this line, hitting the UNDER in three of his last five starts. He’s pitched well against the Rangers this season, nearly averaging one strikeout per inning. However, he’d have to have a long outing in order to hit that and he’s come under 7.0 innings in three of his last four starts.
If the Astros start managing his outings and try to save him for the playoffs, then I can easily see him coming under this line.
Dylan Cease OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Although Cease has missed this line in his last three games, he’s hit it in three of his last six. Cease has been on fire, winning his last five starts and pitching at least six innings in each game.
Today, he faces the ninth-best strikeout rate team in the Kansas City Royals. For most pitchers, I’d fade them instantly. However, Cease is in a different category.
Drew Smyly UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Smyly has missed this line in four of his last five starts, and only cleared the one win by the hook. He’s not a strikeout pitcher and even against the Reds, I expect him to stay true to form.
Smyly has only pitched past the fifth inning in two of his last five starts. If today is another short day – especially being on the road – I like the plus money choice of fading him.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.