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MLB Best Bets Today (Fade Gerrit Cole Against Mariners, Trust Zack Wheeler on Tuesday)

By Donnavan Smoot

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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Today, I’m going with a different strategy. I’m looking at “Pitching Outs Recorded” as the main prop to look at tonight. Shoutout to Peter Dewey for putting me on to this market. 

This is a fun and different way to bet on a pitcher, without dealing with the variability of strikeouts. I’m star-watching today, with all of these names being high-profile starters. 

Let’s get straight into the picks now. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Gerrit Cole UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-115) – BetMGM Sportsbook
  • Zach Wheeler OVER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-110) – BetMGM Sportsbook
  • Shohei Ohtani UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-115) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Gerrit Cole UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-115) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Cole has certainly had his ups and downs this season, and his last start against the Seattle Mariners was definitely a down. However, it’s clear the Yankees have a strategy. They are going to leave Cole out there for six innings.

In his last 19 starts, Cole has gone at least six innings in 17 of them. However, he doesn’t go over six innings often – going over in seven of those 19 starts. I suspect the New York Yankees will let him do his thing tonight, and if he has a rough start, pull him as soon as possible. 

Zach Wheeler OVER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-110) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Wheeler has been fantastic all season long. Just as the Yankees have a plan for Cole, the Philadelphia Phillies have the same with Wheeler. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of his last six starts.

Wheeler got rocked in his first and only start against the Miami Marlins this season. Expect him to flex his 2.69 ERA and 1.01 WHIP tonight and be on the mound for a while. 

Shohei Ohtani UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-115) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Ohtani has missed this line in four straight starts, with his last start being cut short by a forearm injury. Tonight, just a week later, I think we’re in for another short-and-sweet Ohtani outing. The Los Angeles Angels are going to look to manage his pitching night and make sure he’s 100% all night long. 

Even outside of the injury, Ohtani rarely goes seven innings – what it would take to clear this mark. He’s only gone seven innings four times this entire season. Don’t trust that he’ll make his longest start coming off an injury. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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