Betsided

MLB Best Bets Today (Fade Lucas Giolito & Jose Urquidy, Prediction for Tylor Megill)

By Donnavan Smoot

New York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill.
New York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill. / Dustin Satloff/GettyImages
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Tonight, I’m picking two pitchers to fade and one to back on a busy night in the MLB.

Let’s get right to it, with all odds coming from consensus lines.  

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Tylor Megill OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
  • Lucas Giolito UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+118)
  • Jose Urquidy UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Tylor Megill OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Megill has been great in his starts this season. He’s cleared this line in three of his four starts this season. The Phillies are 15th in the Majors in strikeouts. If both teams come out and play to their normal standards, Megill can have a successful day on the mound. Megill has also gone over five innings in each of his last 2 starts. I’m expecting to see Megill out on the mound for a while, so six strikeouts is definitely in play. 

Lucas Giolito UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+118)

At plus money, I think we’re getting some value here. Giolito has missed this line once this year and has cleared it once this year as well. However, I think this is an ambitious line for him tonight against the Angels. Los Angeles has been the hardest team to strike out in the last three games and have a lot of momentum with the bats. Giolito hasn’t had long starts either, so I’m not too confident about a strikeout-filled day from him. 

Jose Urquidy UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Urquidy hasn’t cleared this line all season long. While he’s cleared five innings twice, he’s only gotten to three strikeouts in a start once. Tonight, he’ll be going up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who are in the top 10 in hits per game. The Blue Jays can put a lot of runners on base and apply pressure to Urquidy. Although 3.5 is a small number, Urquidy hasn’t shown he can clear it yet.