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MLB Best Bets Today (Fade Max Fried & Luis Severino, Trust Dodgers in Arizona)

By Donnavan Smoot

New York Yankees pitcher Luis Severino
New York Yankees pitcher Luis Severino / Gregory Shamus/GettyImages
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Today, I'm easily backing the best team in baseball and I'm fading two pitchers on the mound. The juice on two of these props are heavy, I still like the value on them.

Let’s get right to it, with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook: 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
  • Luis Severino UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
  • Dodgers -1.5 vs. Diamondbacks (-130)

Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Fried cleared this line in his last matchup, but that is just a good game. He missed it his first two starts and has a tough matchup against the Cubs today. Chicago strikes out at the 8th-lowest rate in the league, only striking out 8.00 times per game. Fried had a long outing against the Dodgers, going over seven innings. Don’t expect a second straight marathon game or a pile of strikeouts tonight. 

Luis Severino UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Severino hasn’t cleared this line all season long and tonight isn’t the night to back him. One of the main reasons I’m fading him is because he just won’t be out on the mound that long. He’s pitched five innings twice and three innings once. This is an aggressive line for him and if he isn’t going to be out on the field long enough, then I don’t think he’ll clear it. 

Dodgers -1.5 vs. Diamondbacks (-130)

The question for every Dodgers’ game this season isn’t whether or not they are going to win, but rather how much will they win by. Los Angeles is covering at an insane 75% rate this season. The Dodgers have covered the run line in every game they’ve won this season, and I expect them to get a win tonight.

Arizona is 1-4 against the rest of the NL West this season and its offense doesn’t give me confidence going into tonight. The Diamondbacks are 29th in OPS and hits per game, while being 28th in runs per game. 

The Diamondbacks will have to put runs on Tony Gonsolin, who’s only allowed one run in three starts this season. I don’t see that happening, so I’ll back the explosive Dodgers’ offense to win and cover again.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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