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MLB Best Bets Today (Framber Valdez To Have Strong Outing At Home)

By Donnavan Smoot

Jul 24, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws
Jul 24, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
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The purpose of today’s "best bets" column is to completely shake off what happened yesterday. We hit a reverse sweep, missing on all of our props. We missed the OVER on Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara’s line by one, the UNDER on Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello’s line by one and just whiffed on Houston Astros aceJustin Verlander.

As for tonight, we’re looking to bounce back by backing two strong American League pitchers and expecting some late night runs on the West Coast.

All odds listed are via consensus sportsbooks. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Johnny Cueto OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
  • Framber Valdez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
  • Cubs-Giants OVER 8 Runs (-115)

Johnny Cueto OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110) - Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox

Cueto comes off a strange start in which he went 7.1 innings, but recorded zero strikeouts. That certainly isn’t happening again. Today, he’s facing the Oakland A’s, who strike out at the sixth-highest rate in MLB. 

He’s also cleared this line in five of his last seven starts. I think we might be getting a slight discount because of his previous start, but I’ll gladly take the chance to back Cueto. 

Framber Valdez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-135) - Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Valdez has cleared this line in three of his last four starts, fanning eight batters in his last start against the Mariners. He averages just over one strikeout per inning when he’s at home, making this prop a matter of distance for me.

He hasn’t pitched less than six innings since April, giving me a lot of confidence that he’ll stay on the mound long enough to cover this line. 

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants OVER 8 Runs (-115)

After five consecutive losses, Drew Smyly has recorded a win in two of his last four starts. He’s also only allowed one home run in his last four starts. All the signs point towards him having another good outing and leading the Cubs to victory.

However, it’s the Cubs. I can’t back them. 

Instead, I’ll look at the total. While Smyly is improved, he’s still not unhittable. The same goes for Jakob Junis. He’s given up a home run in seven of his last 10 starts and has a 5.68 ERA in July. 

Although both of these offenses are rather pedestrian, I like them to come alive on a Saturday night and hit the OVER.

Lean: OVER 8 (-115)

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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