Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Giants Undervalued, Clarke Schmidt Should Dominate)

A loaded Tuesday night slate in Major League Baseball kicks off at 6:10 p.m. EST, and there are plenty of ways for bettors to wager on tonight’s action. 

Usually, I take a few player props when it comes to my MLB Best Bets, but I’m eyeing two moneyline plays on Tuesday with, as there are a couple of starting pitchers that I feel are a bit undervalued. 

Plus, one New York Yankees pitcher has been lights out in 2024, and he’s a great prop target in a bounce-back spot for New York against the Seattle Mariners.

Let’s dive into the picks and odds for these MLB bets on May 21:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets Today for May 21

• San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-135) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Clarke Schmidt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-170)
• Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-142) vs. Boston Red Sox

San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-135) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants have very similar records so far this season, but it’s the Giants who have the advantage on the mound on Tuesday.

Logan Webb (4-4, 3.03 ERA) gets the ball for the Giants as he looks to improve his team to 6-5 in his 11 starts this season. Webb has a Fielding Independent Pitching of just 2.96, a sign that he’s been one of the better pitchers in the National League so far in 2024.

We’ve come to expect that from Webb, but Pittsburgh starter Martin Perez isn’t off to as strong of a start.

The Pirates are just 3-6 in his nine outings, and the veteran lefty comes into this game with a 4.86 ERA and 4.59 FIP. Perez was also rocked in his last outing, allowing nine runs on 11 hits in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Normally, I’d be concerned about the Giants’ bullpen (4.62 ERA this season), but the Pirates aren’t much better there (4.35 ERA this season), so I’m going to trust the far better starter in Webb on Tuesday.  

Clarke Schmidt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-170)

How good has Clarke Schmidt been for the Yankees?

The young right-hander has a 2.49 ERA in nine starts this season, leading New York to an 8-1 record when he takes the mound.

Schmidt is coming off arguably the best start of his career, tossing eight scoreless innings and allowing just three hits in a win over the Minnesota Twins. It was the sixth time this season that Schmidt allowed two or fewer earned runs in a start.

Not only that, but the righty hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in an outing all season, putting him in a great spot to stay below that threshold on Tuesday. 

Seattle’s offense hasn’t been great in 2024, ranking 24th in runs scored and 22nd in OPS, so I expect Schmidt to stay hot and slow it down in this matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-142) vs. Boston Red Sox

The Tampa Bay Rays are just a half game ahead of the Boston Red Sox entering Tuesday night’s matchup, but I think they’re in a great spot to pick up a much-needed win. 

Tampa Bay has Zack Littell (2-2, 3.44 ERA) on the mound in this one, and his FIP suggests he’s been even better than that this season, sitting at 2.87. 

Boston is sending Cooper Criswell (2-1, 2.76 ERA) to the mound, but he’s due for some regression, especially after allowing five runs (three earned) across 3.2 innings in his last start. Criswell’s FIP is nearly two runs higher than his ERA at 4.38 this season.

While Boston is 5-2 when Criswell takes the mound this season, I still think Littell is the pitcher to back. Both of these starters made their last start against tonight’s opponent, and Littell was slightly better, allowing four runs in five innings in a Rays win. 

I’ll take a shot on him picking up back-to-back victories for the Rays against Boston on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.