MLB Best Bets Today (Happy Zac Gallen Day, Back Boston at Home and More Predictions on Sunday)
By Peter Dewey
With 16 games to choose from, there is a ton of Major League Baseball action to bet on Sept. 4.
I have my eye on three plays, including one player prop to keep your spirits high on this Labor Day Weekend. First, we’re shipping up to Boston for a pick in the Boston Red Sox-Texas Rangers matchup before heading to New York for a player prop pick in the Washington Nationals-New York Mets game.
We finish out the day backing one of the best pitchers in MLB, Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. Ready to dive in? Here are my picks for Sunday:
MLB Best Bets Today
- Boston Red Sox ML (-126) vs. Texas Rangers
- Erick Fedde OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-166) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: Red Sox ML (-126)
This is a no-brainer with Texas struggling mightily over the last week. The Rangers rank 20th in OPS and 26th in team ERA over the last seven days, while Boston is seventh and 22nd in those respective categories.
The Red Sox pitching staff is a concern, but we know they can hit, and Dane Dunning has been extremely average in the 2022 season. He has a 4.24 Fielding Independent Pitching, and since he threw seven shutout innings against his former team, the Chicago White Sox, Dunning has struggled posting a 4.87 ERA over his last four starts.
To make matters worse, the Rangers are a dismal 8-17 in Dunning’s 25 starts this season, and they’ve won just one (!!) of his 12 road starts in 2022.
This is the ultimate fade of Texas, and one of the plays I like the most on Sunday.
Erick Fedde OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
My favorite prop comes in the Washington Nationals-New York Mets game, where you have to fade starter Erick Fedde for Washington.
This season, Fedde has really struggled, hence his 5.29 ERA and 4.93 Fielding Independent Pitching so far in 2022. Over his last 12 starts, Fedde has allowed three or more earned runs in seven of them, and the Nats have shown no issue with letting their starters work into games even if they aren’t pitching well this season.
The last time he faced the Mets, Fedde lasted just 1.1 innings, allowing six earned runs on eight hits. Not great.
New York’s offense should tee off on the struggling righty, who has a 6.75 ERA since that start against New York on May 30. – Peter Dewey
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: D-Backs ML (-166)
There’s only one way I’m playing this matchup, and it’s backing Zac Gallen and the D-Backs to get the win. Arizona is 7-1 in Gallen’s last eight outings, he’s essentially spotted them huge leads by pitching deep into games and keeping his opponent scoreless.
Gallen (10-2, 2.53 ERA) is showing why he was a sneaky NL Cy Young award candidate early in the 2022 season, pitching 34.1 consecutive scoreless innings over his last five starts, giving up just 14 hits over that stretch.
There is some concern with the Arizona bullpen, so I don’t mind backing the D-Backs in the first five innings, but you are giving the offense, which is 19th in OPS this season, less time to build a lead.
Even though Jason Alexander was solid in his last start, he has a 6.26 ERA since the start of July (eight outings, three starts).
Bet on Gallen and don’t look back.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.