MLB Best Bets Today (Has Vegas Not Paid Attention to Drew Rasmussen Lately?)
By Ben Heisler
Sometimes you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to sports betting.
On one hand, my WNBA best bets throughout the postseason have gone swimmingly, moving to 12-5 against the spread since the playoffs tipped off on August 17. However, my MLB picks have started to slow down; going 9-10 since then; and 2-6 ATS since Monday.
Transparency is the name of the game, which is why we track all our plays here at BetSided. Mine can be found here on my BetStamp page.
However, Wednesday is a new day, and after diving into the slate of games, here are my three favorites picks and props on the Major League board tonight.
Best MLB Bets Today
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers NRFI (No Run First Inning)
It's another low total in the Longhorn state when the Rangers host the Astros this afternoon; highlighted by two solid pitchers on the bump.
Via Pickwise's Jared Smith, Rangers starter Martín Pérez and Astros right-hander Cristian Javier have combined to go 36-8 in NRFIs this season. The Rangers rank just 19th in baseball in first inning runs scored, and the Astros' number drops sizably from 0.70 a game at home to 0.55 on the road.
Pérez has also been dominant all year long the first time through the order. In 58 innings pitched, he has a 0.93 ERA; allowing only six earned runs all year long. That's not just the first inning, but the entire time through the order.
PICK: Astros-Rangers NRFI -140
Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts - Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
Did the oddsmakers fall asleep at the wheel and forget to update their projections on Rasmussen this entire month?
The Rays' right-hander has been fantastic in August with a 1.59 ERA in 28.1 IP; highlighted by 29 strikeouts to just four walks. Opponents are hitting just .155 against him, and that's bad news for the Marlins. Over the last 30 days, Miami is striking out just under 25% of their at-bats, hitting under .200 as a team, and have a team weighted-on-base-average, or wOBA of just .261. Those last three starts rank DEAD-LAST in all of baseball.
I get that Rasmussen by nature isn't a strikeout artist, but he also has fanned seven, eight, and nine hitters respectively in his last three starts. Miami can't hit, and Rasmussen can't be hit. Perhaps I'm getting Punk'd by this line, but this is an easy call.
PICK: Rasmussen OVER 4.5 K's (-127)
Chicago White Sox -1.5 vs. Kansas City Royals
Enough is enough for the Chicago White Sox. Losing a two-game series against one of the doormat teams in the division is bad enough for a squad that needs desperately wins to remain in playoff contention. A sweep at home, however, might be devastating.
Fortunately for Chicago, Lance Lynn returns to the mound, and while his overall numbers don't look great, he's been much better over his past several starts. Since August 14, Lynn has gone 17.2 innings, allowing just four earned runs, while striking out 21 and walking just two.
As for his opponent, left-hander Kris Bubic has gotten flat-out destroyed over his previous three starts. The 25-year old has a 9.45 ERA in 13.1 innings, allowing an absurd 27 hits over those games. He's gotten tattooed, and may be just what the White Sox need as a slump-buster on the mound.
For as bad the White Sox have been, they seem to go back to their "happy place" facing left-handed pitching; ranking fourth in all of baseball in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and second in batting averaged (.276).
Chicago fends off the pesky Royals at home, and does so on the run line at even to plus-value.