Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (How to Bet Yankees-Mariners, Paul Skenes on Thursday)

Thursday is a travel day in Major League Baseball, but there are still eight games in action, with two of the best young pitchers so far in 2024 – New York’s Luis Gil and Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes – both taking the mound before 1 p.m. EST. 

With a limited number of games to bet, how should we break down this MLB slate?

There are a few plays I’m looking at, including a prop for Skenes in his third Major League start.

Let’s break down the picks for Thursday, May 23:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets Today for May 23

• New York Yankees-Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)
• Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
• Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (+100)

New York Yankees-Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)

Gil has been terrific for the New York Yankees this season, especially in the month of May, posting a 0.74 ERA across four starts. He’s allowed just 11 hits in 24.1 innings of work. 

Gil also is great at registering strikeouts (89th percentile in strikeout percentage), and Seattle strikes out more than any team in baseball this season. So, I expect him to keep this offense in check early. 

On the other side, Seattle has ace Luis Castillo on the mound, and he comes into this game 3.28 ERA, posting seven straight starts where he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs. 

New York has been a tough offense this season with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but Castillo has a career ERA of 2.84 in five starts against New York in his career.

With this total up at 4.5, I love the UNDER in the first five innings if these pitchers remain hot.  

Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

When the No. 1 prospect in baseball takes the mound, we have to bet on him, right? 

Skenes gets the ball against the San Francisco Giants in an early afternoon tilt, and he’s looking to clear 7.5 punchouts for the second time in three starts.

The rookie had seven K’s across four innings in his first outing of his career, but he turned in a gem in his second outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball while striking out 11 batters. 

If he can find a middle ground between those starts, he’s a great bet to clear 7.5 punchouts against a San Francisco team that averages nearly eight strikeouts per game this season.

Skenes threw 100 pitches in his last start, so we know the Pirates are willing to let him work deeper into games. That’s a good sign for any of the OVERs on his props on Thursday. 

Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (+100)

Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has a dream matchup with the Texas Rangers on Thursday. 

Not only are the Phillies heavily favored, but Wheeler is going up against lefty Andrew Heaney, who comes into this start with a 0-5 record and a 4.43 ERA. The Rangers are just 1-8 when Heaney takes the mound in 2024.

That sets up Wheeler in a good spot to pick up a win, something he’s done in every game Philly has won that he’s also started. The Phils are just 5-5 in his 10 starts, but Wheeler is 5-3, posting a 2.52 ERA as well. 

Wheeler has allowed over three earned runs in just two of his 10 starts, and I think the Philly offense will give him plenty of run support against Heaney. Rather than laying the moneyline price on the Phillies, I’ll take Wheeler to get the win at even money.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.