Cristian Javier recorded 10 strikeouts, easily clearing his 7.5 strikeout line. Javier’s prop win, despite the Astros' 7-1 loss was a part of a 2-1 night for me, with Tarik Skubal surpassing his UNDER 4.5 strikeouts by the hook.
Today, I’m focusing on the pitching matchup in the Bronx with Cincinnati Reds starter Luis Castillo against New York Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. I’m fading one, and backing the other.
Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from consensus lines.
MLB Best Bets Today
- Luis Castillo OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
- Nestor Cortes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Luis Castillo OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Castillo is the probable pitcher getting my support tonight.
He's been fantastic in his last three starts, only allowing two runs while racking up 25 strikeouts. He's also going deep into his starts, pitching seven innings in three of his last five starts. The Yankees have the 12th-most strikeouts over the last seven days. Castillo can definitely force New York to be overly aggressive and strike out.
Although he's missed this line in three of his last five starts, the recent dominance is there -- I expect him to shine tonight.
Nestor Cortes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Cortes, after looking like an early Cy Young candidate, has severely regressed. He got rocked in his last start against the Red Sox, and I don't expect this to be his bounce back game.
The Reds, although not a great team, have been a good offensive team in the last week. Over the last seven days, the Reds have the eighth-best batting average and the fifth-best OPS in baseball.
Throw that on top of Cortes hitting the UNDER on this line in four of his last six games, and you have a great reason to fade him tonight.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.