MLB Best Bets Today (Jose Urquidy Primed For Big Day, Fade This Shohei Ohtani Prop)

Houston Astros starting pitcher Jose Urquidy.
Houston Astros starting pitcher Jose Urquidy. / Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

We're looking for a big day today. We went 1-2 last night, missing on Logan Gilbert's OVER and Yu Darvish's UNDER. It wasn't the way I wanted to start the week, but it gives us a chance for a big bounce back game.

Today, I'm diversifying the picks, with one strikeout prop, and outs recorded prop and a run line prop. Let's dive into the picks.

All odds listed are via consensus sportsbooks. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Jose Urquidy OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130) – BetRivers Sportsbook
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5  vs. San Francisco Giants (+110) – 5Dimes Sportsbook
  • Shohei Ohtani UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-125) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Jose Urquidy OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

I’m going to try this again. I backed Urquidy his last time out against the Mariners, but he came up short. Today, he’s going to be at home against a Red Sox team that was a clear seller at the deadline. Although he got touched up pretty badly in his first start against the Red Sox, this is a completely different Boston team. 

Urquidy’s opponent batting average at home is .230. He’s an extremely solid pitcher at home and I’ll back him one more time tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 vs. San Francisco Giants (+110)

Alex Cobb is coming off a good start against the Giants, but his last start against the Dodgers is what I’m looking at coming into this game. Cobb gave up eight hits and four runs in 5.2 innings just over a week ago against Los Angeles. The Dodgers’ offense has been rolling over the last two weeks – top five in OPS, runs, home runs and hits – and I expect them to beat up on Cobb again.

The Dodgers will put Julio Urias on the mound. After getting rocked against the Cubs, he’s bounced back well. Urias has only given up three runs in his last three starts and has only given up one home run in the process. 

Los Angeles has dominated the Giants this season. The Dodgers are 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS against San Francisco this year. With the offense clicking and Urias back in a groove, this is the Dodgers game to lose. 

Shohei Ohtani UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-125) – BetMGM Sportsbook

This is the only way I can bet against Ohtani. He’s cleared double-digit strikeouts in six straight starts, but I just don’t feel confident in backing that tonight. Instead, I’ll bet that he doesn’t pitch a full seven innings tonight. He’s only pitched seven innings or more in three of his last 10 starts. He’s hit the UNDER on this line in three straight starts as well.

Even though he’s going against the A’s, I think Ohtani goes under this number. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.