Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Mariners Can Upset Twins, Bet These Pitcher Props)

What’s better than a little afternoon baseball on a Thursday?

As everyone gears up for the weekend, including MLB teams, we have a shorter slate on Thursday with several teams traveling, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some MLB Best Bets!

There are a few pitchers that I’m targeting for today’s plays, as well as an upset pick in the first matchup of the day between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins. 

Let’s break down each of these picks – and their odds – on Thursday, May 9:

MLB Best Bets Today for May 9

• Seattle Mariners Moneyline vs. Minnesota Twins
• Marcus Stroman OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed
• Hunter Greene OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded

Seattle Mariners Moneyline vs. Minnesota Twins

The Seattle Mariners are underdogs on the road against the Minnesota Twins, but their starter, Logan Gilbert, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.

The young Seattle righty has a 3-0 record and 1.69 ERA in seven starts, leading Seattle to a 5-2 record in his outings. Gilbert is coming off eight innings of two-hit ball in his last outing, lowering his WHIP to a ridiculous 0.79 on the season. 

He goes up against Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez (3-2, 4.30 ERA) on Thursday, and while Lopez was an All-Star last season, he hasn’t been quite as good as Gilbert in 2024. 

Seattle’s offense (23rd in OPS) certainly worries me in this game, but Gilbert has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts this season, keeping the Mariners in every game. 

Plus, Seattle has the No. 3 bullpen ERA in baseball, so it should be in line to hold onto a lead if it can get one while Gilbert is in the game. I’ll trust the young righty to stay hot and lead his team to an upset on Thursday. 

Marcus Stroman OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed

New York Yankees starter Marcus Stroman has been solid in 2024, posting a 2-1 record and 3.41 ERA across seven starts (the Yankees are 5-2 in those games).

However, he’s struggled a bit with his control, walking 20 batters in seven starts, nearly an average of three walks per game. He’s plus money to finish with three or more walks against the Houston Astros, who rank in the bottom 10 in the league in walks drawn per game this season.

While Stroman had just two walks in his first start of the season against Houston, he has not been sharp as of late, walking five batters in both of his last two outings.

Even if the veteran right-hander turns things around tonight, three walks isn’t out of the question. In seven starts in 2024, Stroman has cleared this prop three times, walking at least two batters on five occasions. 

Hunter Greene OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded

Cincinnati Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene has posted a 3.12 ERA and 3.04 Fielding Independent Pitching this season, yet the Reds are 1-6 in his seven starts.

Brutal. 

The young righty has pitched deep into games, completing at least six innings in four of his seven starts, and he threw 5.2 innings (17 outs) in his last outing. I don’t mind taking a shot on his outs recorded prop against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday.

A huge reason why is Green’s usage. The Reds have allowed him to throw 98 or more pitches in every start, including three starts where he’s cracked triple digits. Greene has also kept his walks down – for the most part – in 2024, allowing just 16 free passes in 40.1 innings of work. 

If he can keep this Arizona offense in check, I expect the Reds to continue to give him the long leash that he’s deserved with this strong start to the season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.