MLB Best Bets Today (Marlins a Major Live Home Dog vs. Dodgers)

14 teams are taking the night off in Major League Baseball as fans and bettors take in tonight's eight-game slate. Yet even with our traditional game options cut in half, there's more than enough action to consider on the board this evening.

For this Monday, I'm putting some trust in a big underdog at home against the best team in baseball, backing an under with not so favorable conditions for hitters, and a strikeout prop for a non-strikeout pitcher that figures to be too low for the matchup.

Here are my top three MLB bets on the board for this Monday, with all odds shown below.

Best MLB Bets Today

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 9.5

At first sight, it looks like the Cardinals come to town, fresh off their Sunday Night Baseball comeback victory over the Braves and likely demolish the Reds as Chase Anderson makes his first start of the year in Cincinnati.

However, the Cardinals are an ideal team to fade in these spots, as teams often struggle traveling after the late night game Sunday and into an early Monday evening matchup.

Furthermore, the weather conditions in Cincinnati don't appear to be good for both hitters, as well as for anyone looking for runs despite a very high total. There's rain and possible thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the entirety of the night, so there's a very good chance that if this game does get played, there will be heavy delays and possibly a rainout after five complete innings. The wind is also blowing in from right field between 5-7 mph.

This feels like a betting line set by what could theoretically happen, rather than playing out the likelihood of everything that should happen. I'll take the under on a nice high total.

Miami Marlins ML vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

**UPDATE**

Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin is going on the injured list with a right forearm strain, per Dodgers reporter Jack Harris. Right-hander Michael Grove (0-0, 5.79 ERA) gets the start.

Betting against the starting pitcher with the best win/loss record in baseball? "That's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see if it plays out for them."

Tony Gonsolin has been fantastic. He's 16-1 this season with a 2.10 ERA in 23 starts. But his splits also indicate two things: regression is coming, and he's much better at home than on the road.

Gonsolin's ERA is just above 2, but his expected ERA is a full run higher, his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP is 1.20 points higher, and his expected FIP is at 3.74. Furthermore, his 1.55 ERA at home is spectacular, but on the road, it goes up to 2.66. Again, not bad by any stretch, just not as dominant.

The total is a mere seven runs, and Marlins starter Pablo López appears to have turned the corner; going six shutout innings in his last start. I think Miami can hang with the Dodgers in the final game of this extended series at spectacular odds.

Dylan Bundy OVER 3.5 Strikeouts - Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

Bundy is nowhere near the high-throwing early first round draft pick from many moons ago, but 3.5 is a very reasonable number for him to clear; especially given how the splits work out in his favor.

Sure, his strikeout numbers are slight down at home compared to the road, but he's been far superior at home this year. At Target Field, he owns a 2.68 ERA with a .207 batting average against, compared to a 5.66 ERA and .283 BAA away from home.

But here's where the splits really matter.

Bundy faces a very right-handed dominant Red Sox lineup, and facing right-handers at home has been where he's at his most effective. His strikeouts per nine jump by almost two, going from 5.80 at home vs. both LHBs and RHBs to 7.52 vs. right-handers.

Boston ranks middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts this season, but are eighth-highest in the majors over the last week. Bundy's confidence at home is clear, and given the matchup vs. plenty of right-handed bats, I'll back him at very good odds to deliver.

PICK: OVER 3.5 Strikeouts