MLB Best Bets Today (Miles Mikolas Set To Dominant Reds)

Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals / Dilip Vishwanat/GettyImages

We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today, so I'm going to focus on some game picks. The Phillies are playing the Marlins as they try to sneak into the playoffs, while the Cardinals are in the middle of a key 6-game series against the Reds. On top of the Cardinals-Reds game pick, I'm making my pick on Miles Mikolas.

Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from consensus lines.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Miles Mikolas OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)
  • Phillies ML vs. Marlins (-112)
  • Cardinals -1.5 vs. Reds (+112)

Miles Mikolas OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Mikolas has only cleared this line in two of his last five starts, but today’s matchup suits him. First, the Reds aren’t a great offense. They average the seventh-most strikeouts per game, benefitting Mikolas. Secondly, Mikolas goes fairly deep into his starts. He’s pitched at least 6 innings in four of his last five starts. If Mikolas can continue to have long starts, 4.5 strikeouts against an overly aggressive Reds team is easy. 

Phillies ML (-112)

Today is going to be a fade Trevor Rogers day for me. He has done a good job at not allowing home runs, but he lets normal runs trickle in.

Rogers has given up 14 runs in his last five starts. The Phillies’ offense hasn’t been lethal over the last week, but if Rogers spots them a few runs in what normally is a short outing, then they can easily get rolling. 

Over the last month, Miami has also been one of the worst offenses in the league. The Marlins are 28th in OPS, 26th in runs and 27th in RBI. They can’t generate a lot of offense, which I think will be their downfall tonight. 

With a suspect pitcher on the mound and a desolate offense, take the Phillies as close favorites. 

Cardinals -1.5 (+112)

St. Louis will put Miles Mikolas on the mound, and I’ll put my trust in him as well, as seen from my prop bet. He is top 10 in ERA and WHIP. He has been giving up several home runs over his last five starts, but they have been solo shots, keeping the runs to a minimum. 

The Reds’ offense has come alive in the last week. They are fifth in runs scored and fourth in OPS over that span. I would back them to cover, however, I don’t have much faith in Nick Lodolo. His inconsistency makes me a little nervous to back him tonight. His 4.44 ERA also isn’t that encouraging. 

If the Cardinals can cut Lodolo’s day short with some early offense, I like them to run away with this matchup. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.