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MLB Best Bets Today (Pay Price to Fade Pitchers On Thursday)

By Donnavan Smoot

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler.
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler. / Mitchell Leff/GettyImages
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Today, I decided to bet a few unders -- which automatically means I'm going to be sweating out these picks. However, I've decided to back it up with a high value play against the spread to make up for it.

Without further ado, let’s get right to it – with all odds coming from consensus lines.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Jon Heasley UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-118)
  • Zack Wheeler UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-127)
  • Dodgers -1.5 vs. Phillies (+145)

Jon Heasley UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-118)

In his three starts this year, Heasley has given up three home runs and hasn’t cleared this line yet. The Rangers aren’t the best offense in the league, but they’ve shown they can be competent. That seems to be all it takes to get Heasley off his spot. After two suspect starts, I think Kansas City might give him a shorter leash today than ever. Even though it’s a little juiced up, this prop is a fun one.

Zack Wheeler UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-127)

Although Wheeler has been good this season, the Dodgers are the best offense he’s faced all year. He’s cleared this line in his last two games, but missed it in the three starts prior. The Dodgers have the ability to run the score up on anybody, and I think Wheeler has a shorter start today than he’s used to. 

Dodgers -1.5 vs. Phillies (+145)

To this point in the season, betting on the Dodgers to win the game is essentially betting them against the run line. Los Angeles has covered in every game it's won, and I am backing the trend tonight. 

The Dodgers will have to overcome Zack Wheeler to get the win, but their offensive lineup is as dangerous as any team in the league. Still, the Phillies haven’t been able to give Wheeler the proper run support in his starts, which is why they are 1-4 in games he starts. Wheeler has been going longer in his starts, but he’s going to come off the mound eventually. 

Los Angeles has the offense and the pitching with Tyler Anderson on the mound. While they’ve lost consecutive games twice this season, I don’t see them starting this series off with a loss. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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