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MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Astros-Rangers & Tyler Mahle)

By Donnavan Smoot

Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
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I’m looking to a Texas-only showdown on the mound tonight between the Rangers and the Astros. The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning vs. Jose Urquidy, which will make this game an interesting one. Outside of that matchup, I head up north to Cincinnati to make a pick on Tyler Mahle’s start today.

Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from consensus lines and WynnBET Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Dane Dunning OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
  • Jose Urquidy UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-117)
  • Tyler Mahle OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Dane Dunning OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)

Dunning is going to give up hits. That’s what he does. However, this line is an overreaction to his last start. Before his previous start, he cleared this line in eight straight starts. Even with the Astros being one of the harder teams to strike out, Dunning is set for a bounce back game. He threw for five strikeouts in his last start against the Astros. The keys are there for him to bounce back against an aggressive Astros’ team. 

Jose Urquidy UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-117)

Urquidy has missed this line in five of the last seven starts. He’s been up and down over his last four starts, but the one thing that’s stayed constant is his mistakes. Urquidy has given up a home run in every start except for two. If he gives up homers in bunches against the Rangers, who are top 5 in home runs per game, this could be a short day for him. The homers plus the inconsistent pitching is forcing me to fade him here. 

Tyler Mahle OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Mahle has been inconsistent when it comes to hitting this line. He’s 2-3 in the last five starts and hasn’t hit it in consecutive starts all season. However, Mahle is playing the Diamondbacks, who are a good matchup for any pitcher. Arizona strikes out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball. Mahle struck out 10 batters the last time he pitched against the Diamondbacks. That was less than a week ago, so I’m going to back him to do it again.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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