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MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Charlie Morton, Dodgers-Reds and Tigers-Royals on Thursday)

By Donnavan Smoot

Atlanta Braves pitcher Charlie Morton.
Atlanta Braves pitcher Charlie Morton. / Kevin C. Cox/GettyImages
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We have a lighter MLB slate tonight than usual, but I still have picks galore.

Today, I look at two late games and a pitching prop from an World Series Champion. 

Let’s get straight to it,  with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook: 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Charlie Morton OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130)
  • Tigers/Royals UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110)

Charlie Morton OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)

Morton missed this line by one strikeout in his opening start, but tonight is a great matchup for him. The Padres strikeout at the eighth-highest rate in the majors. In the last three games, they’ve struck out an average of 11.33 times per game –which is the worst in the league. Morton went five innings in his first start of the season. If he can give the Braves another good outing, innings-wise, then I like this number. 

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130)

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ offense has clearly broken out of its funk. Los Angeles has put up 14 runs in the last two games and have covered in both games. Yesterday, the story was Clayton Kershaw being pulled with a perfect game still in tact, but now we can focus on how good the Dodgers look as a whole. 

I’m not expecting a perfect game from Walker Buehler, but I am expecting to see a good performance. The Reds are 27th in batting average, hits per game and 28th in bases per game. This isn’t some high octane offense that can put a lot of pressure on a pitcher. 

The Dodgers should win this game easily, but that comes down to Buehler having a good night. Buehler was solid in his opening start, going five innings and only allowing two runs. Another performance like that is perfect and will give the Dodgers enough space to cover the run line. 

Tigers/Royals UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110)

This is a simple pick for me. Neither of these teams have been great at getting people to cross the plate this season. The Royals are better than the Tigers, but they are still 19th in the majors in runs per game. Detroit is 22nd.

When it comes to hits and giving yourself a chance to score runs, both of these teams are in the bottom third of baseball. 

Zach Greinke is coming off a performance in which he only gave up one run in five innings. Casey Mize didn’t have as good of a day, giving up four runs on four errors. However, I don’t expect him to have that many errors this time out. 

With equal juice on both sides, I’ll take the under. 

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