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MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Shohei Ohtani, Matt Swarmer & Aaron Ashby)

By Donnavan Smoot

Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees - Game One
Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees - Game One / Dustin Satloff/GettyImages
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Reid Detmers had a strong start that hit the OVER, sending us to 1-1 last night in the “Battle for L.A.” predictions. Tonight, we have a more well-rounded array of characters. I’m going back to the Angels for a pitching prop, backing a Cubs pitcher and fading another NL Central starter. 

Let’s get right into the bets for today, with odds coming from consensus lines and WynnBET Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Matt Swarmer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
  • Aaron Ashby UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
  • Shohei Ohtani OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Matt Swarmer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Swarmer has had issues keeping the ball in play this season, giving up nine home runs in three starts. However, he’s cleared this line in every start this season. It’s clear that even if he has a rough outing, the Cubs are going to leave him in to get them through five innings. Swarmer has a decent amount of time to get a few strikeouts. The Padres are near the middle of the pack in strikeout rate this year. They aren’t an all-time lineup, so I trust Swarmer to reach this with sufficient innings.

Aaron Ashby UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Ashby is 5-5 against this prop over the last 10 starts, making this feel like a true toss-up. He hasn’t been terrible this year, at times showing a great deal of control. However, he’s playing the Mets today, so I’ll fade him. New York gets the most hits per game in all of baseball. Their offense is predicated on methodical hitting rather than the long ball, and that will take its toll on Ashby. If he can’t force strikeouts early, the Mets will end up piling it on. 

Shohei Ohtani OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

I backed Ohtani in his last start against the Red Sox, and got burned hoping for a bounce-back game. While he did play well, we missed the prop by the hook. Still, I’m going right back to the well tonight. 

Seattle is just outside the bottom third in the league in strikeouts per game. If Ohtani can get off to a good start, it should be easy sailing. Ohtani also has the innings on his side. He’s pitched at least six innings in four of his last five starts. I expect him to have another strong start, which will turn into strikeouts. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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