MLB Best Bets Today (Target Strikeout Props for Brandon Woodruff, Noah Syndergaard on Monday)
By Ben Heisler
It's the start of a new week in Major League Baseball, and perhaps the first full week of warmer weather throughout the bulk of the country.
For today's "MLB Best Bets Today," I've got two strikeout props I'm backing for when the Milwaukee Brewers match up vs. the "red-hot" Cincinnati Reds at home. Cincinnati has won two of three, bringing their season total of victories to five, so it's safe to constitute them in the "hot" category. I also like another strikeout prop in the late game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels.
Additionally, I'll break down why I'm backing the underdog Oakland Athletics on the road today vs. the Detroit Tigers.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 9
- Brandon Woodruff OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
- Noah Snydergaard UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
- Oakland A's (+104) vs. Detroit Tigers
Brandon Woodruff OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
Break up the Reds! They're on a tear with their first series win of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend, and now welcome the division leading Brewers to town for a three-game set.
Brandon Woodruff gets the start for Milwaukee, and while he gave up three earned runs to the paltry Reds' offense his last time out, he also struck out 12 batters in just 5.2 innings.
Since only striking out two batters in his first two starts, Woodruff has passed this projection in two of his last three starts, the only one missing being a six-strikeout game on the road vs. Pittsburgh.
Noah Snydergaard UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
Thor's hammer is starting to slow down a tad these days.
Syndergaard's average fastball velocity is still at 95 mph, but his strikeout rate is by far the lowest of his career so far in 2022; averaging just 5.25 strikeouts per nine innings this year.
A key reason is him throwing far more ground balls than ever before; up over 50% for the first time in his career.
I also worry about the Rays' potent lineup with several left-handers in this matchup, as Snydergaard for his career is 20 points worse against lefties than hitters from the right side.
BetSided's Reed Wallach is also going with Snydergaard's under prop for his BetSided Best MLB Prop Bet of the day.
Oakland A's (+104) vs. Detroit Tigers
BetSided's Joe Summers has the A's on the moneyline in his top MLB Parlay write-up, and I wholeheartedly agree with the play.
Sometimes, you'd rather be lucky than good, and that's been the case for Tigers starting pitcher Michael Pineda. Despite a 3.77 ERA through three starts this year, the peripherals suggest some serious regression coming.
Via MLB Statcast, Pineda ranks in the 1st percentile in fastball spin, 8th in strikeout rate, and sixth in expected slugging percentage. That's not a good place to be if you're looking to keep hitters guessing.
Meanwhile, A's starter Paul Blackburn owns a sparkling 2.22 ERA with a FIP that's just over 2. He's also seen his strikeouts-per-nine-innings jump up to the highest levels of his career.
The A's have the better pitcher and deserve to be favorites on the road. I'll gladly take the discount.
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