Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Total in Royals-Blue Jays, Best NRFI Bet to Make)

Looking to bet on some of the Major League Baseball action on Tuesday, April 30?

Well, yours truly is back with another edition of MLB Best Bets, and there are a ton of games to choose from – and some elite pitchers on the mound – tonight. 

Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Luis Castillo, Jordan Montgomery and Yu Darvish will all start for their respective teams, but do they make our best bets?

Here are three MLB picks to consider tonight:

MLB Best Bets Today for April 30

• Seattle Mariners-Atlanta Braves No Run First Inning
• Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
• Kansas City Royal-Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings UNDER

Seattle Mariners-Atlanta Braves No Run First Inning

Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners have been one of the best No Run First Inning (NRFI) teams in Major League Baseball, hitting it 62 percent of the time this season. 

Across six starts, Castillo has allowed just one run in the first inning, and he’s posted three straight starts with at least six innings pitched and two or fewer earned runs. 

On the other side, Reynaldo Lopez has been lights out for the Atlanta Braves, putting up an impressive 0.72 ERA on the season. 

In four starts, he’s allowed just one total baserunner in the first inning (it came on a walk) while striking out six batters. 

We have to lay some juice with this NRFI, but it’s worth it with these starters on the mound. 

Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has a favorable matchup on Tuesday night against a Tampa Bay Rays team that has the seventh-most strikeouts in Major League Baseball this season. 

Peralta picked up seven or more strikeouts in each of his first four starts of the season, but he fell short of this number in his last outing (five strikeouts) after he lasted just 4.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

I think the righty bounces back in a big way in this one, and his advanced numbers tell us he’s one of the best pitchers at getting the swing and miss this season. Peralta ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff percentage and the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage. 

With this number dropping below seven, it’s a perfect time to buy low on the Brewers ace. 

Kansas City Royal-Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings UNDER

Two great starters take the mound in the Kansas City Royals-Toronto Blue Jays matchup on Tuesday, so why not take an UNDER early on? 

Cole Ragans gets the ball for the Royals, and he’s been great this season outside of one start, posting a 3.90 ERA and 2.23 Fielding Independent Pitching. Ragans has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his six outings, although he did give up seven runs in 1.2 innings against Baltimore on April 20. 

I still like him to slow down this Blue Jays offense early, but Toronto’s starter – Jose Berrios – may be the real prize in this matchup. 

The righty comes into this matchup with a 1.23 ERA in six starts, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each of them. Berrios also has four straight starts with five or fewer hits allowed. 

Since the Jays are in the back half of the league in bullpen ERA, I’ll take the UNDER while I think both starters remain in the game for at least five innings.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.