MLB Best Bets Today (Trust Clayton Kershaw & Brandon Woodruff On Thursday)

Jul 30, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22)
Jul 30, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

In a spot on perfection of Bone Thugs N’ Harmony, I would like to announce that it’s, the first of the month. 

Today, I have three picks and all of them are OVER strikeouts props at plus-money. There’s a play for the early, afternoon and night window of today’s slate, so you will be covered until it’s time to go to sleep. 

Let’s not build it up any longer. Here are the picks of the day. 

MLB Best Bets Today

Johnny Cueto OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110) – Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

When in doubt, back Johnny Cueto. He’s been fantastic all year long and this seems like a very reasonable line, even though it's against the Royals. For a majority of the season, Kansas City has been one of the best teams in the league at not striking out. However, they are in danger of falling out of the top 10 and have struck out 10 times per game over the last three games. 

The Royals are slipping and Cueto, who dominated August outside of one start, will be glad to take advantage. He hasn’t cleared this line in his last seven starts, but we’re going to trust him anyway. Cueto’s still been dominant and he’s consistently been around this number – so he gets our stamp of approval today. 

Brandon Woodruff OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+106) – Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 

Woodruff has cleared this line twice in his last four games and I’m backing him to make his mark on one of the toughest teams to strike out. The Diamondbacks, just like the Royals, are in danger of falling out of the top 10. They haven’t been horrendous in their last three games, but the marginal difference will come into play tonight. 

In August, Woodruff had a 2.70 ERA. If he can continue to pitch the way he has, the strikeouts will follow. 

Clayton Kershaw OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+120) – Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

I’m just leaning into an aggressive day with this pick. Kershaw has hit this line once in his last three games and now takes on one of the best teams in the National League. Still, I like this line for him because it hasn’t been out of reach for him in his recent starts. 

Kershaw isn’t going to go seven or eight innings and dominate like he used to, but his efficiency is still there. In his last 3 starts (13.2 IP), he’s struck out 14. This prop is all about time for Kershaw. If he can avoid getting beat up early and stay on the mound for at least 5 innings, then I like this prop a lot. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.