Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Trust Marlins Early, Fade Luis Gil on Sunday)

Is there anything better than a loaded afternoon slate in Major League Baseball on a Sunday?

Bettors have a ton of action to dive into on April 21, and there are a few pitching matchups and games that I’m looking to target. 

Let’s dive into the best bets to place for this massive MLB slate:

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MLB Best Bets Today for April 21

• Luis Gil OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed
• Miami Marlins First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Chicago Cubs
• Diamondbacks-Giants UNDER 7.5

Luis Gil OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed

Luis Gil has pitched well for the New York Yankees this season, but he’s also been a walks machine. 

Gil allowed seven free passes in his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays, giving him 14 walks in 14.0 innings pitched this season. 

The young righty has hovered around five innings in every outing this season, so if he keeps up this current pace he’s looking at four or five walks on the ledger against Tampa Bay. The Rays have not walked a lot this season – 28th in baseball in walks drawn – but Gil’s control is too erratic to stay away from this prop. 

Take the OVER until the young righty gets this walk count down. 

Miami Marlins First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Chicago Cubs

The Miami Marlins have a favorable matchup against the Chicago Cubs and struggling veteran starter Kyle Hendricks on Sunday.

Hendricks and the Cubbies have a much better record than Miami, but I think the Marlins will lead early in this one based on the pitching matchup. 

Edward Cabrera gets the ball for Miami, and the young righty has some wipeout stuff, and he showed it in his 2024 MLB debut. Cabrera punched out 10 batters, allowing just one run against the San Francisco Giants.

The problem? Miami’s bullpen – one of the worst in baseball – blew the game.  That’s why I’m only looking to back Miami when I expect Cabrera to be in the game.

As for Hendricks, he’s been downright awful in 2024, posting a 12.71 ERA and 8.70 Fielding Independent Pitching across four starts. Hendricks has allowed 24 earned runs and 31 hits across just 17 innings of work, and the Cubs have lost three of his four starts. 

He’s a must-fade on Sunday. 

Diamondbacks-Giants UNDER 7.5

We have a doozy of a pitching matchup in the San Francisco Giants-Arizona Diamondbacks game on Sunday. 

Here’s a look at the profile of the two starters in this one:

• Giants: Jordan Hicks (2-0, 1.57 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 0.91 WHIP)
• Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.19 EA, 3.84 FIP, 0.93 WHIP)

I think this sets up well for an UNDER, as Hicks and Kelly both have given up two or fewer runs in each of their four starts this season.

While I am concerned about the Giants’ bullpen (29th in ERA), I think this game is going to be a pitchers duel until the later stages.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.