MLB Best Bets Today (Twins, Yankees Grab Wins, Fade Aaron Sanchez Again)
By Peter Dewey
There’s few things better than sitting down for an entire afternoon of baseball on Sunday, so why don’t we make some bets in the process?
I’m looking at three different games for my best bets in MLB on Sunday, with a moneyline upset pick, a favorite to back and a prop bet to fade one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season.
Let’s get into the picks, with all odds via WynnBET:
MLB Best Bets Today
- Minnesota Twins Moneyline (+100)
- Milwaukee Brewers Team Total OVER 4.5 Runs (-130)
- New York Yankees Game 1 Moneyline (-160)
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: Twins Moneyline (+100)
The Minnesota Twins are looking to sweep the Kansas City Royals on Sunday, in the final game of a four-game set.
The Royals are just 14-25 on the season, but they are sending one of their better starters, Brady Singer (1-0, 2.84 ERA) to the mound on Sunday against Bailey Ober (1-1, 2.75 ERA).
Both of these starters have been really solid this season, but there is a drastic difference between the Twins and Royals on offense in 2022.
The Twins rank 10th in Major League Baseball in OPS, and they are also 13th in runs scored, leading to a plus-30 run differential.
Kansas City is almost a polar opposite. The Royals are 23rd in OPS, 27th in runs scored and have a putrid minus-55 run differential. The Royals may have Singer on the mound, but they have one of the worst bullpen ERAs in the league at 4.35.
It’s not easy to complete a four-game sweep, but if anyone is going to do it, it’s the Twins today. Singer and Ober should duel for the first few innings, but I trust this Minnesota offense to get to the Royals’ struggling bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers Team Total OVER 4.5 Runs (-130)
The Milwaukee Brewers take on the horrible Washington Nationals and starter Aaron Sanchez, who ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity and the second percentile in hard hit percentage this season.
Yikes.
Sanchez has an ERA of 7.94 this season, and he’s allowed at least three runs in all of his starts this season. To top it off, the Nats have one of the worst team ERAs in Major League Baseball at 5.01.
Milwaukee has been swinging the bats well, ranking fifth in MLB in OPS. This is an easy spot to fade Sanchez and the Nats on Sunday.
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: Yankees Moneyline (-160)
The New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox will play a doubleheader on Sunday, May 22, with Game 1 starting at 3:05 p.m. EST.
The Yankees took the opening game of the series on Saturday, and they already took three of four from Chicago earlier this season.
Game 1 will feature New York’s Jameson Taillon (4-1, 3.28 ERA) on the mound against Johnny Cueto, who is making his second start of the season for Chicago.
The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball so far this season, ranking second in OPS, fourth in runs scored and second in home runs entering Sunday’s matchups.
Even though Chicago is starting to hit the ball better as of late, I think having Cueto on the mound is a huge disadvantage for the Sox.
Last season, Cueto was in the 11th percentile in expected batting average against and the 20th percentile in expected ERA.
Yes, Cueto threw six shutout innings against the lowly Kansas City Royals in his first start of the season, but the Yankees are a much different team.
New York is an impressive 15-4 at home and has the second best run differential in MLB at plus-74.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.