MLB Best Bets Today (Yankees Handle A's, Total in Padres-Royals and German Marquez Prediction on Sunday)
By Peter Dewey
We’ve got a little something for everyone on Sunday in the MLB Best Bets column, which features a total, player prop and run line pick for the action on Aug. 28.
There’s a good reason to fade German Marquez on Sunday against a tough New York Mets team, and the New York Yankees are primed for a bounce-back game against a struggling young Oakland Athletics starter.
Let’s jump into the picks for today’s action:
MLB Best Bets Today
- German Marquez OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
- San Diego Padres-Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 (-106)
- New York Yankees -1.5 vs. Oakland A’s (-128)
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: German Marquez OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
There’s a player prop I like more than anything in this matchup, as the Mets are too heavily favored for me to lay the juice with them.
German Marquez has really struggled to miss barrels this season, with opponents hitting .276/.334/.487 against him in 2022.
I’m going to take the OVER on Marquez’s hits allowed prop, which is set at 5.5 at most books. Over his last nine starts (since the start of July), Marquez has allowed six or more hits in seven of those outings.
The only times he went UNDER? Against the Arizona Diamondbacks, twice.
He is a must fade here against a good Mets team at home, especially since the Rockies are willing to pitch him deep into games, with at least six innings pitched in each of his last nine starts.
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: OVER 9.5 (-106)
Yes, Sean Manaea allowed just one earned run in his last game against the horrible Washington Nationals, but outside of that start, he’s been brutal as of late.
Manaea has a 5.90 ERA over his last 12 starts, allowing 72 hits in 61.0 innings pitched. Heasley is no better, and our own Joe Summers explained why he’s fading both pitchers in his daily parlay picks story.
Jonathan Heasley is in the bottom 10 percentile of several key metrics, and he has an ERA of 7.06 over his last seven starts. Even though the Royals aren’t the greatest offense, this game has “high-scoring” written all over it.
To follow another trend, the OVER is 8-2 in the Royals’ last 10 games as home dogs. Until both of these starters put together solid outings, I think we have to fade them.
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics: Yankees -1.5 (-128)
This could be a coming out party for Clarke Schmidt, who has been terrific for the Yankees this season in mainly a bullpen role.
Schmidt has thrown 10 straight scoreless innings for the Yanks, and with Nestor Cortes on the IL, this is an opportunity for Schmidt to audition for the postseason roster and next season's rotation.
I don’t love having to lay -128 juice on a run line considering the Yankees offense struggled on Saturday, but the A’s pitching is a must-fade in this game.
Schmidt certainly has the edge over Adrian Martinez, who made a solid debut on May 10, but since then has a 7.85 ERA in four starts.
New York has the superior bullpen in this matchup, and after an extra innings affair on Saturday, I have to give the edge to the team with the better starter. Martinez simply hasn’t pitched well, and it’s a reason why he hasn’t remained in Oakland’s rotation, making spot starts over the last few months.
The Yankees need this game, and I think Schmidt delivers. The Yankees did sit Giancarlo Stanton on Saturday, so having him back in the lineup should help in this game.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.