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MLB Best Prop Bets Today (Josiah Gray To Help Nationals Out On Friday)

By Donnavan Smoot, Joe Summers

Jul 6, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; \Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray
Jul 6, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; \Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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We didn't get the Sonny Gray prop right, as he surpassed his total by 0.5 strikeouts, so we ended yesterday with a 1-1 record. On the bright side, the Justin Verlander prop hit and that's always good to see.

Today, the team is looking at two East coast pitchers, but we're backing one and fading the other.

You can also find game-by-game betting plays and previews for every matchup on our MLB Picks page, as well as each team's probable pitchers, weather report and more.

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 177-153-0

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Josiah Gray OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120) – BetRivers Sportsbook
  • Nestor Cortes Jr. UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115) – PointsBet Sportsbook

Josiah Gray OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120) – BetRivers Sportsbook

Josiah Gray is a monster on the road, compiling a 5-0 record and 2.45 ERA on the season. He's cleared this prop in four of his last six road starts, including fanning 11 Phillies last month.

But recent improvement with his fastball is the biggest reason to see value in this prop. His slider and curveball have been great strikeout pitches all year, with whiff rates of 45.1% and 36.1%, respectively. However, in July his fastball had a whiff rate of 30.8% and an opponent's expected batting average of .233.

That improving fastball gives Gray three excellent pitches, and if this continues Gray will be a valuable pitcher to back over the next two months. The Nationals are content to let him stay in games even when he's giving up runs, so I'm not worried he'll get pulled if he struggles. Against a Phillies team that averages the eighth-most strikeouts per game at home in MLB, I love the plus money on Gray to shine. – Joe Summers

Nestor Cortes Jr. UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115) – PointsBet Sportsbook

Cortes has hit this prop in three of his last five starts, but tonight is a night for regression. He’s going on the road to face the Cardinals, who average the seventh-fewest strikeouts per game. The Cardinals are also less than .50 strikeouts per game away from being in the top 3. Cortes has been inconsistent since the start of June. Coming off of two games in which he cleared this line, it’s time to sell high.– Donnavan Smoot