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MLB Betting Trends: Don't Trust Dodgers as Big Favorites in 2022

By Ben Heisler

Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts walks back to his team's dugout in their Tuesday 8-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals.
Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts walks back to his team's dugout in their Tuesday 8-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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The L.A. Dodgers own the National League's best record at 64-32, as well as the league's best mark on the run line for bettors this year. L.A on the run line is 57-39-0; covering 59.4% of those games.

However, if a bad team comes to play at Dodger Stadium, bettors should run and hide before considering a wager on them.

The Dodgers dropped their second straight game in a 8-1 blowout vs. the Washington Nationals Tuesday night. It's their second consecutive loss against the worst team in baseball in their home ballpark as they look to get one back in their three game series today.

L.A is a -300 favorite at consensus sportsbooks today vs. Washington as left-hander Andrew Heaney (1-0, 0.59 ERA) faces Patrick Corbin (4-13, 6.02 ERA). While that may seem like a strong indication that the Dodgers' bounce back this afternoon, the trend this season is the complete opposite, as evidenced below.

The Dodgers have not won a game at home against two of the worst teams in baseball this year, going 0-5 straight up against the Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates. As favorites of -300 or greater, they're just 2-4 straight up. That spells disaster for any bettor wagering on L.A. at such a high price.

Should Bettors Fade the Dodgers vs. the Nationals Today?

Given the Dodgers' propensity to struggle vs. bad teams at home, I'm not willing to lay anything on L.A today on either the moneyline (-300) or run line (-1.5, -140).

However, I do like the pick from BetSided's Iain MacMillan on the OVER 9 runs (-110) this afternoon.

While it's more of a fade of the Nationals left-hander and his ERA above 6, it also allows for the remote possibility that Washington's bats stay hot against L.A. in the series and get to Heaney as he makes just his fourth start of the season.

Heaney's looked strong in the early going, but he also allowed more than two home runs per nine innings last year, pitching to a 5.83 ERA in 23 starts in 2021.

The Dodgers are the far better matchup on paper, but until the trend starts to reverse, a bet on the total feels like the safer option.

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