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MLB Home Run "Fireworks" Best Bets For July 4th

Back these players who can cause some big fireworks this 4th of July on the baseball diamond.

By Benjamin Upson

Jun 25, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) follows through on a grand slam home run during the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 25, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) follows through on a grand slam home run during the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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The 4th of July is upon us, a holiday where we celebrate what’s great about America and our independence. Fireworks are always a symbol of this day and the same goes for those that happen on the baseball diamond. Is there anything better than smacking home run bets down on the sport that was America’s pastime? Absolutely nothing!

With an entire slate of 15 games in action, there are so many different bets to take on. Home runs are going to happen and that’s what we’re going to play on this holiday. If you want fireworks in your bank account, home run bets are a way to go. Here’s who to target in Thursday’s slate.

MLB Best Home Run Bets For July 4th

  • Aaron Judge To Hit A Home Run (+168)
  • Logan O’Hoppe To Hit A Home Run (+450)
  • Brenton Doyle To Hit A Home Run (+560)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Aaron Judge To Hit A Home Run (+168)

It’s at the point of the season where betting on Aaron Judge to homer is becoming one of the most successful bets of the whole year. The frontrunner for American League MVP is in the midst of an incredible stretch of the season, including a May-June where all of his power came to the forefront with 25 home runs and 64 RBI, top marks in this league.

In the last 15 days, Judge has been batting .419, tallying 18 hits, 6 homers, 19 RBI and 5 walks in that span. He’s the best player in baseball at this moment and it’s showing with these numbers.

Don’t overthink this, I don’t care how watered down the price is. It’s Aaron Judge and the 4th of July in the Bronx in front of what should be a large crowd. 24 of Judge’s 32 home runs this season have come off right-handed pitchers and he’s facing Frankie Montas, a former Yankee.

It's all setting up for a Judge homer.

Logan O’Hoppe To Hit A Home Run (+450)

This game doesn’t have all the eyes on it for Thursday, but there is expected to be some deep bombs based on what we’ll be seeing out on the mound. Home run heavy pitchers are a perfect opportunity for players to strike and that’s the exact scenario that we have. I look at Logan O’Hoppe in this matchup.

The 24-year-old catcher has broken onto the scene with Anaheim in 2024. O’Hoppe is batting .280 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI on the season. He’s entered this Oakland series on a hot stretch with 3 home runs and 7 RBI across his past 8 games. He’s one of five players on this roster in double digit home runs.

J.P. Sears is taking the hill for the Oakland Athletics in this game and it feels like a great opportunity for the Angels to get some runs via the big fly. Sears has surrendered a lot of home runs as of late (5 dingers in his previous 3 starts) which is a really good advantage in this situation for O’Hoppe. He’s one of the top players on this odds list to hit one out. I’ll back him to create fireworks in a game that certainly may have some.

Brenton Doyle To Hit A Home Run (+560)

Despite the way the Colorado Rockies have played in 2024, their home park is the sole reason why home run bets continue to be worth it. Day in, day out, Coors Field continues to be the hub for long balls. In this game, let’s focus on 26-year-old center fielder Brenton Doyle, who is part of that center core within the Colorado lineup. 

Doyle has been absolutely raking against the Brewers so far in this series with 7 hits, 3 home runs, 5 RBI, a pair of walks and 3 doubles. He has 4 total home runs combined across his past 6 games, which signals that he’s on a massive hot streak. Six of Doyle’s 10 home runs have also occurred at Coors this season.

You could say that this bet is based on trends, but Doyle has been one of the hottest players on the Rockies recently and you can’t fade it. It’s critical to note that Coors Field has and will continue to be one of the friendliest ballparks to hitters in all of baseball due to the high altitudes in Denver. This will just feed more juice into the baseballs as they fly through the thin air.

I’ll happily take Doyle once again and at a very decent price to boot.

Note: Odds are subject to change.

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