MLB Overs Have Been On Fire Since Start of May
By Matt De Saro
I love betting on baseball. There are so many variables to keep track of and trends that never cease to amaze me.
One trend I focused on earlier this year was the betting totals for each game. They were a bit high to start with across the board; leading to a lot of early-season under wins for total bettors to enjoy. In fact, up until the end of April, under bets hit at a rate of about 56 percent through 350 total games. Some attributed this to the balls being stored in humidors, while others submit pitchers are just getting better at a faster rate than the hitters.
Many bettors began to just blindly bet the under in hopes that the trend would continue. While that worked for many early on, the tides have shifted in the other direction. Unders still hold an edge in the W/L column, but high-scoring games are making a push as we head deeper into May.
The percentages tell the tale. Unders went from 60 percent winners just three weeks ago, to 53.6 percent as of Tuesday, May 17, according to VSiN's Dave Tuley.
#MLB faves lead 325-208 SU (61%) on season w/ 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59%, so faves still ahead of that pace); home teams lead just 281-266 (51.4%, usually closer to 54%); Unders lead 278-241-27 (53.6%), down from being at 60% just 3 weeks ago @VSiNLive
— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) May 18, 2022
What could be the cause of this sudden uptick in runs scored?
One of two things is going on. First of all, starters are working longer into games compared to April when they weren't quite stretched out for the season. Hitters are seeing pitchers for the second or third time during starts right now, and every trip through the rotation for a pitcher becomes tougher than the last. Hitters are better at getting a feel for pitchers during a game, as several metrics towards offensive production climb each time through the order.
The other reason is that this early-season lull in scoring is not unusual. There may be more tangible reasons why it’s happening this year, but this is an annual occurrence. Hitters generally start to pick up right about this time during most seasons.
From 2015 to 2021, MLB hitters averaged .244 at the plate with a home run every 30.1 at-bat. In June, those numbers usually peak at .255 and 30.5.
Ultimately, It appears we're seeing this trend play out in real-time, as baseball start to regress towards the mean.
Don't be surprised if over betting in baseball continues to trend in the right direction for the rest of the summer.
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE