MLB Playoff Odds: Wild Card Races Heating Up

The MLB playoff race is heating up in both the American and National League, with the wild card races featuring several teams in both leagues. 

For bettors, there are ways to find value in the latest playoff odds, especially based on the strength of schedule of the remaining teams. 

On Thursday, I went on the Baseball Insiders podcast to discuss these two playoff races to help bettors place the right futures wagers. 

National League Wild Card Standings

Playoff Odds for Teams in NL Wild Card Race

The National League wild card race is an interesting one, as the Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are all tied for the final spot. 

However, I think the Cubs have the best chance to get in out of those three squads. 

Why the Cubs will make the playoffs

Chicago has been on fire offensively since the All-Star break, and the team has a soft schedule (fourth easiest strength of schedule) to end the season. Plus, the team has six games against the Milwaukee Brewers left, so it could even steal the division crown. Even with Marcus Stroman (rib) sidelined, I love the Cubs in the playoff race. 

Let’s dive into the playoff odds for the rest of the NL teams in the wild card hunt. 

Philadelphia Phillies

Philly has a huge lead in the NL wild card, I’d be shocked if this team missed the playoffs. 

Chicago Cubs

At -130, the Cubs are a great value to find their way into the postseason. 

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have the fifth-hardest strength of schedule remaining, and they’ve fallen off a bit after a nice stretch in July. Still, this team is pretty well balanced where it should have a chance to make the postseason. 

Still, 13 games remaining against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves is a concern. 

Miami Marlins

I’m not sure that Miami (sixth toughest remaining strength of schedule) will hit enough to make the playoffs, but the team’s young rotation is one of the best – and most fun – in baseball. 

Maybe the Marlins sneak in, but they’ll need to beat a lot of over .500 teams to do so. With the Giants already holding a 1.5-game lead on them, it’s an uphill battle. 

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been a pleasant surprise in the 2023 season, but they’ve been too up and down (long winning and losing streaks especially) for me to trust them to make the postseason. This is a team I’d fade down the stretch. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona has fallen off, mainly due to the team taking a huge step back on offense. Plus, the D-Backs bullpen is questionable, making them a team that is likely a season away from a postseason berth. 

San Diego Padres

The most disappointing team in the NL, the Padres bought at the deadline and are still on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

American League Wild Card Standings

Playoff odds for teams in AL wild card race

The American League wild card race doesn’t have as many teams truly in the hunt, but the final spot is up for grabs between the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and (maybe) the New York Yankees. 

Seattle and Toronto have the inside track right now, with the Mariners dominating since the trade deadline. 

However, Seattle moved its closer, Paul Sewald at the deadline and has had some bullpen issues since. Does that cost the team, which is plus money to make a second straight postseason, a shot at the playoffs? 

I think there is some value with the Mariners, who have the eighth easiest schedule remaining in the league. The team has six games against the Oakland Athletics, three against the Kansas City Royals and three against the Chicago White Sox. 

Let’s break down the playoff odds for every team left in the hunt:  

Tampa Bay Rays

Based on the odds, the Rays are a virtual lock to make the playoffs in the AL, and they still could win the AL East. 

Houston Astros

Houston is going to be in the playoffs, even if it’s as a wild card. That really leaves just one spot remaining in the AL. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto is in a good spot to make the playoffs, but it does play in the toughest division in baseball, so it ends the season with some tougher matchups. 

Still, the Jays are No. 1 in baseball in ERA this season and a top 10 team in OPS. They’re a solid bet to make the postseason. 

Seattle Mariners

Seattle is the one team that I’d consider betting over the Jays, mainly because the team is peaking at the right time. The Mariners are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have really played some great baseball since the deadline. 

Sitting just half a game back of Toronto, Seattle certainly has a shot to sneak into that final wild card spot. 

Boston Red Sox

Boston has the second hardest strength of schedule left in MLB, so even though the team has shown it can compete with the top teams, I think it’s going to struggle to make up ground down the stretch. 

New York Yankees

Don’t waste your time betting on this Yankees team. 

New York is .500 this late in the season for the first time in over 20 years, and it’s unperformed on offense all season long. Plus, injuries to Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Frankie Montas and the loss of Domingo German (rehab, alcohol abuse) have weakened the team’s rotation significantly.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.