MLB prop bets today (Back Yusei Kikuchi vs. Cleveland, fade Yankees catcher)
By Peter Dewey
The 2023 Major League Baseball season is entering the home stretch, which means we have a ton of data to base our prop bet plays off of at this point in the campaign.
I have two pitcher props and one hitter prop that I’m eyeing on Tuesday night, and they all happen to be UNDERs.
Let’s break each pick down:
MLB prop bets today
- Yusei Kikuchi UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160)
- Ben Rortvedt UNDER 0.5 hits (+105)
- Luke Weaver UNDER 14.5 outs recorded (+115)
Yusei Kikuchi UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160)
Tuesday is a dream matchup for the Toronto Blue Jays and veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi.
The Jays take on the Cleveland Guardians, who are the worst team in Major League Baseball against left-handed pitching (30th in OPS) and won’t have Jose Ramirez (suspension) on Tuesday.
Over his last four starts, Kikuchi has allowed one or fewer earned runs in each. Plus, he’s taking on a Guardians team that was no-hit by lefty Framber Valdez last week.
I’ll lay the juice on this prop, as Kikuchi should be in line for another great outing.
Ben Rortvedt UNDER 0.5 hits (+105)
New York Yankees catcher Ben Rortvedt isn’t known for his offensive game, and he’s a great fade candidate regardless of the matchup.
While the Chicago White Sox have not had a great pitching staff in 2023, I don’t think that matters when it comes to Rortvedt.
The catcher is hitting just .115 on the season, recording three hits in 31 plate appearances (26 at bats).
Two of those hits came in his season debut on May 20, and since being recalled in late July he is 1-for-19 (.053 batting average).
The Yankees also could pull Rortvedt early, something they’ve done on multiple occasions over the last month. He’s a great fade candidate in this game.
Luke Weaver UNDER 14.5 outs recorded (+115)
If there’s one pitcher to fade tonight, it’s Cincinnati Reds starter Luke Weaver against the Miami Marlins.
Weaver has been awful in 2023, but the team has somehow won 11 of the games that he’s appeared in. The veteran righty comes into this matchup with a 6.98 ERA and some of the worst advanced profiles in baseball:
- Sixth percentile in expected ERA
- Sixth percentile in expected batting average against
- Fourth percentile in expected slugging percentage
- 13th percentile in whiff percentage
- 14th percentile in barrel percentage
The Marlins aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but Weaver hasn’t worked deep into games at all this season, completing five innings in just three of his 11 starts since the beginning of June.
I think it’s a massive value that he’s +115 to fall short of that again on Tuesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.