MLB Regression Report: Braves Lose Perfect Week on Walk-Off, Royals, Twins roll

Another week is in the books and almost unbelievably, we're at the quarter-season point of the season.

While the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals deserve kudos for their 5-2 weeks, the Atlanta Braves (24-13) are our "Living the High Life team of the week.

The Braves went 4-1, losing their perfect week on a walk-off Brandon Nimmo two-run homer with two outs in the ninth on Sunday Night baseball.

Before Nimmo's blast, the Braves were 4-0, had given up only 7 runs on the week, and had two off days. Tough to beat that.

The Cleveland Guardians (25-16) had a tougher go of it, losing three straight to the White Sox, before salvaging a game Sunday.

Losing four of seven on the week isn't great for the first-place Guardians, but the good news is Cleveland is right where they're supposed to be per this week's regression report, earning our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

Their record says they are a first-place team and that they are, 41 games into the season, with the Twins and Royals right behind, and suddenly the once laughing stock American League Central is a three-team battle.

The Boston Red Sox (21-19) also didn't have a great week, going 2-3, losing both games in Atlanta and the first against Washington, before defeating the Nationals in the final two of the series.

The Sox also find themselves 5.5 games behind two of the American League's powerhouses, the Yankees and Orioles.

The report suggests there is some upside to the Red Sox, but one wonders how long the pitching staff can continue performing at a 154 ERA+ level.

That number has come down a tad in recent weeks and as the Atlanta series showed, getting good pitching is not the be-all and end-all when the offense is mediocre (99 OPS+, 15th in runs scored) and makes it tough to beat more complete teams.

Still, the Red Sox earn our "It's Not Over Till It's Over" award this week, because the pitching has been good enough to keep them in most games and hosting Tampa (20-21) for four games and then traveling to St. Louis (16-24) and then hosting the Rays has the potential to have a positive impact on the won-loss record.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in the "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.