MLB Regression Report for April 8: Yankees Finding Ways to Win

it's far too early in the Major League Baseball season to making sweeping conclusions, just ask the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays.

But that old saying about not being able to win a pennant in April, but being able to lose one?

Poppycock. Games in April count just as much as those in September.

To that end, the New York Yankees opened the season with a four-game sweep of the Astros in Houston, taking a couple of those games by a single run on their way to an 8-2 start which includes a 4-0 record in one-run games.

The perfect record in one-run games isn't going to last, but those are real wins in the bank for Juan Soto and the Bronx Bombers and they win the "Living the High Life" team of the week, but also making them a candidate for regression.

Meanwhile, in the American League Central, the Cleveland Guardians haven't needed to win the close ones, as both their losses have come by a single run, but in their seven wins they've outscored their opponents 46-12, which is unsustainable over the long term and regression looms.

In the American League West the Astros find themselves tied for the basement with the lowly Oakland (for now) A's, but cheer up Astro fans, you could be the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Spencer Strider Injury overshadows Braves early success

The Braves win our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" weekly award, almost perfectly matching wins and losses and run differential.

Longer term, the loss of 20 game winner Strider, leaves a gaping hole in the rotation and in gifs across social media.

Will that manifest in the Braves regressing? Results post-injury suggest a wait and see attitude may be best as the Braves offense is as potent as it gets.

We had an inking the Marlins were going to regress in 2024, but no one foresaw a 1-9 start, getting outscored by 25 runs and going 0-7 at home.

In the National League Central the Pirates are off to an 8-2 start with a +18 run differential and 3-0 record in one-run games.

We only need to look back to last season's fast Pirate start to see why, although encouraging, this should be appreciated for what it is.

Finally, in the National League West, the Diamondbacks have the most upside despite starting 4-6.

The Snakes lost five of six to the Yankees and Braves, including three by a single run each, to snatch the "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award of the week after blowing two 8th inning leads in Atlanta.

Arizona's record could very easily be flipped to 6-4 and there would be an entirely different feeling in the desert.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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