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MLB Regression Report: Guardians Dominate, Braves in Trouble, Red Sox Face Gauntlet

Cleveland has gone 11-1 over last two weeks, but the Royals are hot on its heels.

By Marty Coleman

May 21, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits a two-run home run in the fifth inning against the New York Mets at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
May 21, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits a two-run home run in the fifth inning against the New York Mets at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
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I've spent a fair amount of time over the first third of the season writing about the Yankees, who are on their way to 100 wins, even if Gerrit Cole doesn't throw a pitch.

The Bronx Bombers have earned it and while they're still thrashing pitchers and dominating opposing batters a more unlikely American League team deserves this week's top award.

Guardians Stretch Streak to 9 straight and 12 of 13

The Cleveland Guardians win the "Living The High Life" award of the week, going 6-0 in sweeping the Mets and Angels in three-game series, extending their winning streak to nine games.

This week, Cleveland travels to Colorado and hosts Washington, before taking on the Kansas City Royals in early June in a showdown of dynamic American League Central teams.

The MLB regression report shows the Guardians playing slightly over their heads and the Royals slightly under, so these teams are likely closer than the current 2.5 game Guardian lead indicates.

Braves Suffer Huge Injury, but Trouble Was Lurking Before That

The injury to Ronald Acuna, Jr. could be devastating to Atlanta's hopes in the National League East, but the truth is, the Braves haven't performed as expected all season.

It'll be fascinating to see what happens to this team post-Acuna, Jr. (and post-Strider), but this team has played almost exactly to their 30-20 record and they take this week's "They Are What They're Record Says They Are" award.

Do the Red Sox Have Wild Card Upside?

The Boston Red Sox continue to mystify with their excellent pitching, but struggle to win at home and are sitting just a game over .500 at 27-26.

Boston went 4-2 last week, sweeping Tampa (on the road), before losing two of three to the Brewers in Boston.

The Sox begin a crucial part of the schedule today, sitting 1.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot and the regression report suggests they should be even closer or perhaps in the last spot, earning the team our "It's Not Over Till It's Over" award for the week.

That said, Boston's next six series look like this: at Baltimore (3), hosting Detroit (4), hosting the Braves (2), at the White Sox (4), hosting Philadelphia (3) and hosting the Yankees (3).

Outside of the White Sox, there's not much easy sledding in those 19 games and this stretch could determine if Boston is a Wild Card contender or pretender.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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