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MLB Regression Report: Guardians, Yankees Solidify Spots, Tigers, Mariners Lurk

Plenty of questions remain as MLB enters the final two weeks of the regular season.

By Marty Coleman

Sep 15, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two-run home run in the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Sep 15, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two-run home run in the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
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Two weeks from now all of the questions will be answered and all of the playoff spots will be filled with the 12-team field.

But for now, questions abound with some teams surging, some teams fading and even a couple of teams we're not sure about 150 games into the season.

Cleveland Guardians Open Up Four Game Lead in American League Central

Technically the Philadelphia Phillies had the best week in MLB, going 5-1, but the Guardians were right behind at 5-2 and opened up a four-game lead over the Kansas City Royals and 6.5 game lead over the Minnesota Twins.

The Guardians have been a mediocre 28-27 since the All-Star break but turned it up to expand their lead by 1.5 games as both the Royals and Twins went 3-3 last week.

Cleveland is in good shape with 12 games to go and win our "Living The High Life" team of the week.

New York Yankees Put Distance Between Themselves and Baltimore Orioles

The New York Yankees also went 5-2 last week and benefited even more than the Guardians, as the Baltimore Orioles struggled to a 2-4 record, falling three back of the Yankees.

Back in March, I posited that the Orioles were ripe for regression from their 101 season a year ago and that has happened.

This certainly isn't over, but the Yankees look like a 94 or 95-win team, which will be tough for the Orioles to match.

My numbers match the Yankees results almost exactly and therefore the Bronx Bombers are our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers Lurking in Wild Card Race

The Detroit Tigers won't catch the Guardians and the odds of the Mariners catching the Astros are dwindling by the day, but both teams are just 2.5 games out of the third American League Wild Card and are co-winners of our "It Aint Over Till It's Over" award this week.

It won't be easy for either as Detroit goes on a 6-game road trip at Kansas City and Baltimore, before hosting Tampa and the White Sox to close the season.

The Mariners host the Yankees for three starting tomorrow, before traveling to the Rangers and Astros, before finishing at home against the A's.

Finally, Minnesota has a four-game set in Cleveland, followed by three in Boston before hosting Miami and Baltimore in three-game sets to end the season.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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