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MLB Regression Report: Mets Jump Into NL Wild Card Race, Young Tigers Still Alive in AL

With three weeks remaining the final Wild Card spots could come down to game 162.

By Marty Coleman

Sep 3, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates after hitting an RBI double in the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Sep 3, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates after hitting an RBI double in the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
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September baseball rarely disappoints and this season is no exception as the Wild Card races could end up as photo finishes decided in game 162.

Several teams made moves last week, including the New York Mets and the Detroit Tigers, two teams I didn't have on my playoff bingo card when the season began.

New York Mets Big Week Leaves Them Tied With Atlanta Braves

After sweeping the Boston Red Sox the Mets took two of three from the Cincinnati Reds to cap a 5-1 week and are tied with the Atlanta Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot.

The Mets have the 10th highest wRC+ in the league at 110, ninth in slugging (.418) and tied for 6th in home runs (182).

The bats have made up for mediocre pitching, but the road ahead is no bed of roses for New York as they hit the road for three in Toronto and then three in Philadelphia this week.

Philadelphia is on the schedule seven times in a 10-game stretch before the season concludes with a six-game road trip to Atlanta and Milwaukee.

If the Mets make the playoffs they'll do it the old fashioned way, they'll earn it, but putting themselves in the position to do so means they are our "Live The High Life" team of the week.

Atlanta Braves Overcoming Injuries To Remain In Wild Card Race

The Braves have overcome a number of injuries to star players this season, including Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna, and look to have a little bit easier of a path to the Wild Card than the Mets.

Atlanta does have a four-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers later this week, but they also have the Reds, Nationals and Marlins ahead.

Much like for the Mets it gets interesting at the end. After the National League East rival Mets visit Atlanta in late September, the Kansas City Royals will finish off the regular season in the Big A.

Fully healthy, this team seemed destined for greatness, but for now, they win our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

Where Did The Detroit Tigers Come From?

A.J. Hinch's Detroit Tigers used a four game sweep of the lowly Chicago White Sox as a springboard to an 11-5 stretch that finds Detroit just 3.5 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot, which is a little weird for a team in fourth place in their division.

The schedule is tough and the chances are not high (7.5% per Fangraphs.com), but this crew has obviously not mailed it in and for that reason the Tigers are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

With three against Colorado this week and three against the White Sox to end the season, Detroit could finish over .500.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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