Betsided

MLB Regression Report: Mets and Tigers Surge into Playoff Position, Royals and Twins Fade

With six days left in the MLB regular season multiple playoff spots remain up in the air.

By Marty Coleman

Sep 13, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo (9) celebrates with third base Mark Vientos (27) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) after hitting a three run home run during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Sep 13, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo (9) celebrates with third base Mark Vientos (27) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) after hitting a three run home run during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

As the final week of the regular season begins there's still an outside chance a divisional leader is overtaken, but the bigger battles are in the Wild Card races in each league, where the New York Mets hold a two-game lead on the Atlanta Braves and the Detroit Tigers have passed the Minnesota Twins, but have the Seattle Mariners on their tails.

New York Mets Finish Week Winning Three of Four in Philadelphia

No one had a better week than the New York Mets, who went 6-1, sweeping the Nationals and then taking three of four from first-place Philadelphia culmination on Sunday Night Baseball.

While the Mets now lead the Braves by two full games with six to play, their path will not be easy, as they travel to Atlanta for a three-game series beginning tomorrow, before heading to Milwaukee for three to end the regular season.

The Mets are 19-6 in their last 25 games and their performance this week makes the Mets our "Living The High Life" team of the week.

Detroit Tigers Surge Past Fading Minnesota Twins and Into Wild Card Spot

The Tigers were right behind the Mets, going 5-1 on the road in Kansas City (3 game sweep) and Baltimore (won two of three).

This team was 62-66 on Aug. 22 but has since gone on a 20-8 heater while the Twins have struggled down the stretch.

The MLB Regression Report shows the Tigers with -.03 wins over expected, meaning this isn't due to luck, that the Tigers "Are What Their Record Says They Are".

The schedule also favors Detroit as the Tigers finish the season with six home games, three against Tampa and then three against the lowly White Sox.

That Wild Card spot is there for the taking for A.J. Hinch's crew.

Kansas City Royals Have Disastrous Week, but Still In the Picture

While most of the collapse talk has centered around the Twins, the Royals went 0-6 last week, getting swept at home by the Tigers and Giants. Yikes.

The Royals still hold a game lead for a Wild Card spot, but now have to hit the road for the final week, facing three games in Washington before closing the season with three in Atlanta against a Braves team that could be battling for their playoff lives.

While they are certainly trending in the wrong direction, the opportunity is still there for this team that I thought would be much improved in 2024.

The MLB Regression Report suggests the Royals are undervalued by almost two and a half games, suggesting a bit of upside should they make the playoffs.

For those reasons, the Royals are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Home/MLB Betting News