Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Arizona as Underdogs)

We have day baseball as a lot of teams finish series across the big leagues, and there are some high level matchups.

The day will feature the surging Royals and finish with the Dodgers looking to flex its muscles against a division foe in the Diaomndbacks, but is the best on the other side?

Here are my picks for EVERY game on a loaded Wednesday baseball card.

Cardinals vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cardinals (-105)

Two teams that are bottom 10 in OPS and two starting pitchers that are bottom fifth percentile in xBA in Cardinals’ right hander Miles Mikolas and Tigers starter Kenta Maeda. 

In a game that has a lot of question marks, I’ll opt for the underdog. 

Rays vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-105)

Zach Eflin is a prime regression candidate, avoiding walks at an elite clip (96th percentile) with an elite breaking ball. He has an ERA of 4.08 with an xERA of 3.48, so there is better times ahead and that starts against a banged up Brewers lineup. 

Twins vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-200)

Minnesota is humming of late, and it’s hard to stand in the team’s way with the lowly White Sox, who have an OPS below .600. 

Royals vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+110)

Keep betting the Royals as underdogs! The team continues to smash expectations and draw Chris Bassitt on Sunday, who has been a mess on the mound all season, posting a 5.64 ERA with terrible underlying metrics, including a 5.99 xERA with a 12% walk rate (18th percentile). 

Pirates vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+100)

Can the A’s pull a sweep? The team has one of its best pitchers in its rotation in Ross Stripling, who is in the 84th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Can Stripling hold off a Pittsburgh lineup while the Oakland lineup looks to find some production.

Braves vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-175)

Atlanta will start Chris Sale on Wednesday, who has a massive edge on the mound as a lefty against this Mariners lineup that has the fourth worst OPS against southpaws with a .203 batting average. 

Phillies vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+160)

Zack Wheeler is pitching like a Cy Young, but this is a big price on getaway day for the Phillies, who are set to wrap up a West Coast road trip. The Angels do hit lefties fairly well, 11th in batting average against southpaws (.254). 

Reds vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+115)

Joe Musgrove’s numbers are bad, and his underlying metrics are even worse. 

He has a 6.94 ERA with an xERA of 7.42 with a much higher walk rate than his career averages. He has lost all command of the strike zone, punching out about 17% of batters, far and away his career low. 

I believe the Reds are being undervalued as road underdogs.

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-160)

I’ll side with the Orioles pitching edge in this one with Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes taking the mound against a talented Yankees lineup, but one that is only hitting .249 as a unit.

Rockies vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+120)

Thees are two poor teams, but I can’t justify making the Marlins a considerable road favorite with the Rockies posing a far more potent lineup. Colorado is hitting .244 as a team, 13th in the big leagues while the Marlins are batting .223 as a group, 25th in the bigs. 

Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-115)

Boston will start promising young arm, Kutter Crawford (1.35 ERA), which gives me confidence he can navigate an average Giants lineup that is countering with minor league arm Daulton Jefferies, who couldn’t pitch more than two innings in his first start in more than a year in the bigs, allowing five earned runs.

Cubs vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+105)

Shota Imanaga has dazzled to start his big league career, posting a 0.98 ERA through his first five starts, but he has allowed plenty of hard contact and I can’t justify him being a road favorite against a Mets team that is an above average hitting group. 

Nationals vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+155)

I’m going to take a shot on the Nationals as big underdogs against the Rangers. 

Texas is starting Andrew Heaney on Wednesday, who has posted a 6.26 ERA with concerning metrics with an average exit velocity in the sixth percentile. Teams have been crushing him and the team will have a capable arm in Trevor Williams (2.70 ERA) on the mound. This price is too wide. 

Guardians vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-175)

Houston has work to do to get back in the mix in the AL West, and Justin Verlander’s fine play needs to continue in order to do it. 

The Astros’ offense has been coming together after a slow start and the Guardians will send out a vulnerable Triston McKenzie, who hasn’t found his form from a few years ago, posting in the 10th percentile in fastball velocity and seventh percentile in chase percentage. 

Trust Houston at home to take care of business. 

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+120)

Two elite arms step on the mound on Wednesday night in in Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers and Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks. 

I’m going to back Arizona at home due to its ability to hit lefty pitching. Yamamoto is still adjusting to the big leagues, teams are punishing him with hard contact (13th percentile), and the Diamondbacks are the best team in the bigs hitting left handed pitching, tops in OPS. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.