Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Can Giants Upset Dodgers?)
By Reed Wallach
Major League Baseball continues on with a loaded Monday slate featuring plenty of intriguing matchups.
There’s plenty of marquee matchups, but the most interesting one is the Dodgers-Giants series opener in the Bay Area. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has settled in as one of the premier pitchers in baseball, but the Giants have found a ton of success from converted reliever Jordan Hicks. Can he shut down the Dodgers loaded lineup?
Here’s my pick for EVERY game on the Monday night baseball slate.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-165)
Corbin Burnes gets to bolster his AL Cy Young campaign on Monday night at home against a Blue Jays team that continues to fall short of expectations this season.
Toronto is hitting .231 as a team this season with the 23rd highest OPS.
I’ll trust Baltimore at home.
Marlins vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (-165)
Matt Manning starts for the Tigers, who is striking out a career best 23.9% of batters. He’ll face a Marlins team that has little to offer at the plate and is starting Sixto Sanchez, who is striking out a sixth percentile 12.9% of batters.
I’ll trust the better team at home.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-120)
In a battle of lefty starters, I’ll side with the Phillies, who are a top 10 lefty hitting offense and will face Sean Manaea of the Mets, who is due for a stepback from his strong start to the season.
Manaea has an ERA of 3.31 with an xERA of 4.47, impactful especially considering he is walking more than 12% of batters while striking out a sub-par 20% of hitters.
The Mets are bottom 10 in OPS against lefties, so I’ll trust the averages.
Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (+100)
I’ll trust Zach Eflin and the Rays to beat the Red Sox in the series opener on Monday.
Eflin has showcased pinpoint control this season, 2% walk rate that ranks in the 98th percentile in the big leagues, and has done a great job of limiting blowup innings, ranking 61st percentile in barrel percentage and 57th percentile in average exit velocity.
The Rays offense is coming alive, fifth in OPS over the last week, and I believe the team is rounding into form at the right time.
Cubs vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (+125)
Rookie Shota Imanaga will face the dangerous Braves lineup in a big test for him, but I’ll take the plus money price as Braves starter Raynaldo Lopez is due for a serious stepback in play.
Lopez has posted a 1.53 ERA in his seven starts, but his xERA is far higher at 3.71 with shaky control (nearly 10% walk rate).
Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (+125)
This is a steep price for Brewers starter Colin Rea to cover, in my opinion.
On the surface, his numbers look solid. He has a 3.29 ERA in seven starts with solid control of a seven percent walk rate. He ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in walk rate, xBA and strikeout percentage.
I’ll fade Rea as a modest favorite with some of his underlying metrics indicating regression on the horizon .
Nationals vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (-135)
Trevor Williams has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 1.96 ERA with one of the potent fastballs in the league this season, ranking in the 99th percentile in terms of fastball run value.
He’ll face the worst hitting lineup in baseball in the White Sox, hitting .213 as a unit, and I expect Williams to keep it rolling.
Guardians vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-105)
In a near coin flip, I’ll trust the more complete team to take care of business against the defending World Series champions that are still searching for consistency this season.
The Guardians are top half of the bigs in terms of OPS, bullpen ERA and are one of the best defensive teams in the sport.
The Rangers have firepower on offense, but the bullpen has been leaky all season, bottom 10 in Major League Baseball, so I’ll side with the road favorite who has proven to be more trustworthy.
Athletics vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (+150)
The Astros continue to be priced as a World Series contender, but that hasn’t worked to date as the team is 10 games under .500.
The pitching staff has been shaky all season, and will now count on Spencer Arrighetti, who hasn’t acclimated to the big leagues just yet. The right hander has struggled in his five starts in the big leagues, posting an 8.44 ERA with a 12% walk rate.
While the A’s lack the talent the Astros have, Ross Stripling may be in for a better performance on Monday. He has a 5.14 ERA, but his underlying metrics are quite good. He has a 3.76 xERA and does a great job of limiting walks (5%).
Cardinals vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angles (-115)
The Cardinals offense has fallen off a cliff, hitting .220 on the year with the third lowest OPS in the big leagues.
I’m not catching the falling knife and will keep on fading the Cards until the team shows it can produce at the plate.
Rockies vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-225)
San Diego should be in good shape to start this series with a win against a Rockies team that struggles on the road. Colorado is 28th in road OPS this season and lacks the firepower to match the Padres, who is top 10 in OPS.
Royals vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+125)
Seattle has jumped to the top of the AL West, but this number is too wide on the Royals, who have proven to be a playoff contender this season.
The Royals pitching staff has been elite, and will get a chance to showcase it again with Brady Singer on the mound. Singer is in the 99th percentile in fastball run value, and is striking out 25% of batters.
The Mariners offense continues to be suspect, 25th in OPS as a unit. I can’t justify this price with Singer on the mound for the Royals.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (-145)
Arizona is in a good spot against Cincinnati on Monday night with the Reds’ pronounced struggles against left handed pitching.
The Reds are hitting .214 on the year against southpaws, so this should be a great spot for Jordan Montgomery to get on track. He is striking out only 10% of batters this season in four starts this season, but should have the edge to justify this price with a sweet swinging D-Backs lineup backing him up.
Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Giants (+155)
I’ll grab the Giants as big underdogs despite Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the other side for the Dodgers.
That’s because Jordan Hicks has pitched like an All-Star in a new role as a starter for the Giants. Hicks, a flame throwing former closer, is focusing more on his breaking ball and his control, and it’s showing. He is striking out a career low 20% of batters, but is walking a career best 9% of batters.
This new look has showed in the stats, posting a 2.30 RA with an xBA of .230.
At home, I’ll back the Giants to keep this close and pull away late.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.